605
FXUS64 KHUN 290904
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- MEDIUM-HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY FROM NORTH OF
MEMPHIS TO SOUTH OF HUNTSVILLE AND NORTH OF ATLANTA. THIS BOUNDARY
LATER TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT HEADING EASTWARD.
AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH, VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BOOST
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FROM ALREADY RATHER HIGH VALUES OF
~1.8", TO 2" AND HIGHER. THIS MOIST AIR WARMED FROM DAYTIME
HEATING, ALONG WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION, WILL HELP PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
A WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WAS ALREADY RESULTING IN
LIGHT SHOWERS TRYING TO FORM ALONG WITH NORTHERN MS/AL BORDER AND
WESTWARD. VARIOUS OUTPUT FROM THE SHORTER TERM MODELS HAVE THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS BEGINNING IN THE LATER MORNING, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED, THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH PONDING OF WATER, FLASH FLOODING, AND
FLOODING RISKS. OVERALL STORM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN "GENERAL"
WITH THE USUAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND A FREQUENT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND A BIT COOLER - MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 70S EAST TO
LOWER 80S WEST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE CONTINUED MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND STORMS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXITS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FEEL QUITE SOUPY AS PWATS STAY AROUND 1.8", AND
ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICKER
MOVING STORMS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW RISK FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING, WE DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PEAK IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN DIURNAL HEATING EFFECTS ARE HIGHEST. BE SURE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR THIS WEEKEND IF SPENDING TIME INDOORS AND
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF YOU HEAR THUNDER/SEE
LIGHTNING.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG TERM, MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THIS
COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SUPPRESS ON HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND BRING IN MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO BELOW 30% EACH AFTERNOON.
LIKEWISE, THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUR CURRENT MUGGY
DEW POINTS FURTHER SOUTH, REPLACING THEM WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S. MODERATE TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A VERY HUMID
AIRMASS MOVING IN, ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HIGH WATER CONTENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS, VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY
VFR PREVAILING (AT TIMES MVFR), BUT REDUCTIONS TO IFR OR LOWER
COULD OCCUR IN THE HEAVER SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON A PRECISE
TIMING OF CONVECTION, THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
TAFS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME SE 5-8KT FROM THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RSB
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