794
FXUS64 KHUN 300233
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 932 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- A MEDIUM-HIGH (50-80%) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY (BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS),
WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS, AIDED BY SOME APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THE DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BE
DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT INTO A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE WORKED OVER AND A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER TRIES TO DEVELOP. LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD IN DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AND WITH A WEAK INVERSION IN PLACE, PERSIST THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTS AT
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH HEATING TO GENERATE
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE CONVECTION (60-80%) SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/ISOLATED FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS MAY FINALLY GET ADVECTED INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT, GIVING US A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE IN
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
LIKELY TO AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY, BEFORE DISSIPATING AGAIN AT SUNSET. WITH A DRY AIRMASS
BEING REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THANKS IN PART TO
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE MID SOUTH. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE AREA ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN SOME LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A MUCH AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
SOURCE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MUCH CLEARER THAN WE SAW THIS WEEK,
WITH POPS BELOW 15-20% EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT IT DOES LOOK
LIKE MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEER
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GULF.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING,
PROMOTING A TEMPO AT BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS. AN AWW AND/OR AMENDMENT COULD BE NEEDED SHOULD A
STORM IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. AFTER MIDNIGHT, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
FROM LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP, BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY
LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL -SHRA MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP.24
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