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FXUS64 KHUN 301134
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 339 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- A MEDIUM-HIGH (50-80%) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND STRONG
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY (BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS),
WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NE ARKANSAS, TO ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE, THEN SE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA TO THE
GEORGIA COAST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAD ANOTHER
COLD FRONT TRAILING WESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IN PART BEING DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY.
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, A MOIST AND RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS
PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MILD OR WARM NIGHT-TIME
CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT, NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDING AND
INTERACTING WERE IN PART HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WERE DOTTED AROUND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, MOVING TO
THE NE AROUND 10 MPH. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NOW AT ~1.5" TO
1.7"; SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8" TO 2" LATER TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, AND ELECTRICALLY
ACTIVE STORMS. THE SHOWERS THAT WE HAD FRIDAY EVENING DUMPED OVER
1.5" OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT TIME, AND PRODUCED PONDING OF WATER
ISSUES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA, AS WELL AS SOME RISES IN AREA
STREAMS, CREEKS, AND RIVERS. FORECASTED COVERAGE AT THIS TIME DOES
NOT LOOK GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS,
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS MAY FINALLY GET ADVECTED INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT, GIVING US A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE IN
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
LIKELY TO AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY, BEFORE DISSIPATING AGAIN AT SUNSET. WITH A DRY AIRMASS
BEING REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THANKS IN PART TO
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE MID SOUTH. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE AREA ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN SOME LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A MUCH AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
SOURCE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MUCH CLEARER THAN WE SAW THIS WEEK,
WITH POPS BELOW 15-20% EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT IT DOES LOOK
LIKE MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEER
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GULF.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
NUMEROUS TO AT TIMES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BEST TIMING FOR STORMS
APPEARS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A NORTH TO SOUTH MANNER ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER FOG,
SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF GIVEN TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS ISSUANCE TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB
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