894
FXUS64 KHUN 301512
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1012 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON
MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREATS.
- DRIER AND MORE MILD CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN
A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE. THEREFORE, NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BUT A FEW SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
OUR SOUTH, BUT ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PROGRESS
OVER THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ANOTHER MUGGY AND UNSETTLED DAY IS
THEREFORE IN STORE FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODEL PWAT VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 1.7-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
(1.6-1.70 INCHES) WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
THEREFORE, SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED, NUISANCE FLOODING. AS FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG STORMS, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO
BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS. FURTHERMORE,
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, NOT SURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED (HI-RES
GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE). REGARDLESS, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH ANY STORMS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR STORMS
IF YOU ARE WORKING OUTDOORS OR HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS WHEN
DRIVING, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT (AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK), WITH THE
BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL.
THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE WARM, IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND IT'LL STILL BE MUGGY,
WITH MINIMAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CALM. THEREFORE, LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST. WHAT MIGHT HINDER
FOG DEVELOPMENT A BIT (ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG) ARE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER,
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST LOOKS TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST A BIT OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. AT THE SURFACE, THE BOUNDARY SLATED TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH
(DISCUSSED ABOVE) WILL PERSIST, WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED. THEREFORE, EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-60%) SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WE ARE WATCHING A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON
MONDAY, SINCE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE
BY THIS TIME. SPC HAS A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER.
OVERALL, GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SRH IS MINIMAL AND MODEL HODOGRAPHS
DO NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT. THEREFORE, GUSTY WINDS
AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE IMPACTS. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS SHOULD ANY BE ISSUED!
LASTLY, FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY BUT BE A TOUCH WARMER ON MONDAY. LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A MUCH AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
SOURCE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MUCH CLEARER THAN WE SAW THIS WEEK,
WITH POPS BELOW 15-20% EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT IT DOES LOOK
LIKE MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEER
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GULF.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
NUMEROUS TO AT TIMES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BEST TIMING FOR STORMS
APPEARS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A NORTH TO SOUTH MANNER ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER FOG,
SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF GIVEN TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS ISSUANCE TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB
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