385
FXUS64 KHUN 310226
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 926 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON IS FORECAST ON
MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH GUSTY WINDS,
HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREATS.
- DRIER AND MORE MILD CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PERSISTING ALONG
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER, LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DISSIPATE AND GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT
WINDS, PATCHY FOG AND/OR VERY LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
09-13Z WINDOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IF IT CAN DEVELOP, THIS FOG
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AND WE'LL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS
CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID-MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND SOME SOME LINGERING
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN
MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE STILL FAIRLY MODEST SHEAR
PROFILES, THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
UPSTREAM, GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS MO/AR AND
MOVING SE/ESE WITH THE MEAN FLOW, EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE
REGION SOMETIME MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL
LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON MONDAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE, IN PARTICULAR, HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE INGREDIENTS AND WE COULD POTENTIALLY
HAVE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
INCREASE BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE REGION TO AROUND 30-40 KTS.
MEANWHILE, THERMODYNAMICALLY, WE'LL BE SURFACE-BASED WITH SOME
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY OVER 2000
J/KG), WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO EXHIBIT A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS (DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG), WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS -- TO GO ALONG WITH HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (PWATS AROUND 1.5"). MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
HODOGRAPHS FAVOR VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS SETUP
DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
REGION OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL FORM UPSTREAM AND THE EXACT TRACK/MOTION IT
WOULD TAKE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT OUR CHANCES IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD PAY
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND A COOLER, DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND FINALLY KEEP POPS BELOW 10
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY MID TO LATE WEEK, PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
DRY, TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS A RESULT OF AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY,
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S, BUT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW/MID 60S IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE LARGELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY ARRIVING LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING,
PROMOTING A TEMPO AT BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS. AN AWW AND/OR AMENDMENT COULD BE NEEDED SHOULD A
STORM IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. AFTER MIDNIGHT, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
FROM LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP, BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS
BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE WAS TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP
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