305
FXUS64 KHUN 312322
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.
- DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT WE HAVE BEGUN TO START SEEING AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTION. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT HAVE
FORMED ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE
BASED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND PWATS OVER 1.8 INCHES, WET
MICROBURSTS ARE ANOTHER HAZARD WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON. AS THE
CURRENT STORMS DECAY, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT GET KICKED OUT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEW STORMS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS WITH TROUGHING ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. SHOWERS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING. ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THESE PRODUCE MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LATER TODAY ACROSS NE AL. THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH THROUGH TN. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO
DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON SOME
OF THE HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING, IT APPEARS THE BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AS SBCAPE INCREASES
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN CONCERN IS
FLOODING AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN ARE BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES. HIGH RAIN
RATES (1-2 IN/HR) COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY FIZZLE OUT THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FORECAST. ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE FOR DENSE FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO COMBINED WITH A VERY SATURATED GROUND MAKE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WILL WE CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT OR WILL LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ACTIVE WEATHER IS TYPICAL IN THIS
FLOW REGIME, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE. ON MONDAY MORNING, SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. THIS WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND UNLIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS, DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KNOTS BY THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IF A LIFTING MECHANISM CAN INITIATE CONVECTION. THE
FEATURE WE WILL BE WATCHING IS A MCS THAT DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MO AND THEN RAPIDLY MOVES SSE
TOWARDS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE MORNING CAMS SUGGEST THAT THE
MCS WILL ARRIVE INTO NW AL BY 16-18Z AND QUICKLY PUSH SSE INTO
CENTRAL AL BY 20-22Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS STILL LOW AS MODELS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT THE MCS
DEVELOPS TO OUR NW. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
DAMAGING WINDS (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) AND LARGE HAIL (LOW CONFIDENCE)
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. TORNADOES DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE.
SOMETHING WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IS A SECONDARY M3CS THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS W
TN/E AR. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE
FIRST MCS MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REDEVELOPING IN NW AL.
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS STARTING TUESDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY THE AFTERNOON. BUT DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE UPPER 50S
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MUCH WELCOMED CHANGE FROM THE 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY MID TO LATE WEEK, PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
DRY, TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS A RESULT OF AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY,
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S, BUT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW/MID 60S IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE LARGELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY ARRIVING LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CLUSTERS OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. SHOULD A STORM IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL, AWWS AND
AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. AFTER STORMS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP MID/LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A
PROB30 FOR NOW. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 15-21Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24
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