966
FXUS64 KHUN 010227
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 927 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LOW CHANCE
OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING
WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND WAS NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SETTING SUN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ANY
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT
WINDS, PATCHY FOG AND/OR VERY LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
06-12Z WINDOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF IT CAN DEVELOP, THIS FOG
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AND WE'LL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS
CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.
WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID SOUTH AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM, GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS
KS/MO TONIGHT AND MERGING WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
ACROSS AR/KY. THIS FEATURE WOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN
MCS AND VEER TO THE SE/SSE. MOVING WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT
OVERNIGHT, THIS WOULD EVENTUALLY PLACE IT AT THE DOORSTEP OF FAR
NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND 15Z MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO DECENT AGREEMENT OF A LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL
TIME OF THIS FEATURE. THIS LINE AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS WOULD
THEN TRACK SE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON.
THOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN EXACTLY HOW
CONVECTION TO THE NW WILL EVOLVE, GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY HI-RES
GUIDANCE), CONTINUES TO FAVOR A VERY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION TO AROUND 30-40 KTS. MEANWHILE, THERMODYNAMICALLY, WE'LL BE
VERY UNSTABLE EVEN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. PROGGED
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG (AND AS MUCH
AS 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON), WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500
J/KG. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM WERE ALSO
NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS (DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG). THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS -- TO GO ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL (THANKS TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE). MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS FAVOR VERY
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, RESULTING IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL REINFORCE THIS COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS -- RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. QUITE A COMFORTABLE WAY TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK,
PROMOTING TRANQUIL, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS MAY BRING LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CLUSTERS OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. SHOULD A STORM IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL, AWWS AND
AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. AFTER STORMS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP MID/LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A
PROB30 FOR NOW. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 15-21Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP.24
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