965
FXUS64 KHUN 011146
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING
WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
** ADDED A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AS A THREAT**
A BUSY DAY WEATHERWISE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY. FIRST ITEM IS A RISK OF AREAL TO WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED RAINFALL
TO A DEGREE, WITH A WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS ARE TWO VARIABLES
NEEDED FOR FOG FORMATION. THE OTHER, "CLEAR" SKIES IS BECOMING
HARD TO COME BY, AS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM
SE TO NW. AS OF THIS WRITING, THESE LOW CLOUDS (CLOUD BASES OF
1000' OR LESS ABOVE THE AVERAGE GROUND) HAVE COVERED NEARLY ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS UNDER THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME BECOMING FOGGY, BUT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. PLACES THAT
ARE FOGGY WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK.
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
VALLEY LATER IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. AN AMPLIFYING
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WAS IN PART
PRODUCING A NW-SE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW WAS
SENDING VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO THE SE. ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE HELPED PRODUCE STORMY WEATHER LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCES IS INVOLVED WITH A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI. THIS MCS WILL HEAD SE
AND MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. BUT DAYTIME HEATING OF AN ALREADY
MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WITH FORECAST CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2000-3000 J/KG, SOME
MODELS SHOWING EVEN HIGHER VALUES. AS THE MCS MOVES OVER AN
UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
INTENSITY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THEM WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO
RISK IS VERY LOW GIVEN A WEAK LOWER LEVEL FLOW. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED AS WELL. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING FROM MOVING CONVECTIVE A LOW FLOODING THREAT REMAINS
BECAUSE OF A WET GROUND, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CAN QUICKLY
ADD UP. TIMING OF THE STORMS APPEARS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 10 AM
OVER FAR NW ALABAMA AND END OVER SE AREAS AROUND 2 PM. THERE
REMAINS SOME VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM START OF THE NEW MONTH, WITH
HIGHS RISING MAINLY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
UPPER 80S IF FOG DISSIPATES FASTER AND ALLOWS MORE HEATING BEFORE
SHOWERS COMMENCE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, RESULTING IN TRANQUIL
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL REINFORCE THIS COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS -- RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. QUITE A COMFORTABLE WAY TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK,
PROMOTING TRANQUIL, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS MAY BRING LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
LOW CLOUDS MOVED IN FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN IFR CIGS,
WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO LIFR, AND SOME SPOTS BEING IMPACTED BY
FOG. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING COMMENCE. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MO/IL AND FAR WESTERN KY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE SE, AND SHOULD IMPACTING THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WITH THIS COMPLEX COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS, ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A RISK OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD END AS WE GO
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS, SKIES CLEARING AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL GROUND
MOISTURE, MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
PREDAWN OF TUE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RSB
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