774
FXUS64 KHUN 061857
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
157 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1059 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SETS UP BY MIDWEEK, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY
THEN TAPERING OUT IN THE EVENING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 100
DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN, NO FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE RESULTS IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR BY
TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS NOTED
BY WPC'S INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WITH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND WEAKER STEERING FLOW ALOFT, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF STORMS WITH
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AS HIGH AS 2.2". RECENT RAINFALL
HAS SOFTENED SOILS ENOUGH TO MAKE WEAKER TREES MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FALLING EVEN IN NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, SO BE MINDFUL
OF THIS ESPECIALLY IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS OR DRIVING THROUGH
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOONS, BUT
MEDIUM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THANKS TO THE
HEAVY CLOUDS AND RAIN, PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY TO ROUND THE SOUTHEAST'S RIDGE
ON TUESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE RIDGE EASTWARD THEREAFTER. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH
CENTERED IN THE MID- ATLANTIC, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT IN WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. DURING
THIS TIME, ANOTHER RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BUT WILL BE BLOCKED ON PROGRESSING EASTWARD.
THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE, THERE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S. YES, IT'S JUNE, BUT THESE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE ELEVATED HEAT RISK VALUES, SO ENSURE
YOU ARE STAYING COOL AND HYDRATED!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25
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