339
FXUS64 KHUN 070147
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
847 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 846 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK GO UP MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A COMFORTABLY WARM EVENING IS UNDERWAY AS VEILS OF HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IN OK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENSION FROM THIS LOW
THROUGH AR INTO SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST AL. THIS DIVIDES A HIGH
THETA-E/PW AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH PW VALUES OF 2.2-2.4
INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN MIDDLE 70S, FROM ONE WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE TN VALLEY. SO WE WILL SEE A VERY DISTINCT
AIRMASS CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH IT, CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING JUST TO SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST AT TIMES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A WANING PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY, BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, DESPITE LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR, BUT NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH LIMITED CAPE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
ONLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ORIGINAL 8H/5H WAVE SHIFTING ONLY
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT I'M
NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL NOT BE CONTINUED CLUSTERS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS IN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEAST AL.
THE OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW WILL HAVE BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPEARS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT. WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW BEING FAIRLY WEAK (8H-5H WSW AT
15-20KT), EXCESSIVE RAIN APPEARS TO BE A DISTINCT THREAT ON
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY EDGES EAST
INTO THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEY. THE WPC ERO OF SLIGHT RISK BOTH
DAYS LOOKS GOOD AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN
FUTURE UPDATES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
ON WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, DISRUPTING THE VAST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL FURTHER BE DAMPENED AS A WAVE OF
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
WE ARE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST, IT WON'T
FEEL LIKE IT. WE'LL BE TRAPPED IN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY (LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
20-50%). WE WILL ALSO TURN UP THE HEAT AS TEMPS STAY IN THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS SET UP WILL
ALSO PUSH THE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND VALUES GET A
LITTLE BIT HIGHER, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY. YES,
IT'S JUNE, HOWEVER WE DO NOT FEEL ACCLIMATED TO THE HIGH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS LONG, SO ENSURE THAT YOU STAY HYDRATED AND SLOW
DOWN TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND IFR RATHER ABRUPTLY BY
13-14Z AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVANCES AND A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
BELOW 020AGL, AND EVENTUALLY BELOW 010AGL AS SHRA AND TSRA BECOME
NUMEROUS. A FEW OF THE SHRA AND TSRA WILL PRODUCE +RA AND LOWERED
VISIBILITY OF 3SM OR LESS. LOW CEILINGS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS A RESULT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17
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