512
FXUS64 KHUN 080623
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
123 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- FLOOD WATCH MONDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES BY LATE THIS WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SHRINK IN AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST
AL INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER CULLMAN AND
SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. THE TROUGH
NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO MO AND AR TONIGHT
WITH A LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER, IL,
WESTERN KY/TN INTO MS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE REDEVELOPMENT
OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EXISTING CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/THETA-E GRADIENT. LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, INCREASING THE MOST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN INTO FAR NORTHEAST AL BEFORE MORNING. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT THE TIME THE FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL TEND TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY'S CONVECTION. THE BETTER SHORTWAVE SUPPORT
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT AND LOWER
OH VALLEY, BUT WITH THE HIGH PW AIRMASS AND AMPLE HEATING, THERE
WILL STILL BE A DECENT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST TO
THE MIDDLE 80S IN NORTHWEST AL.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE OZARKS. THIS SYSTEM
GENERATES CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO
MIDDLE AND WESTERN TN MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MUCH
OF AL AND GA INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. FOR
NOW, WILL NOT EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH PAST MONDAY, BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE REASSESSED DEPENDING ON MONDAY'S RAINFALL. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO TN/AL AND MS BY WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL NOT
CAP OFF AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. SO LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S (POSSIBLY 100 IN
FAR NORTHWEST AL).
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS WILL BE
DAMPENED AS A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF A TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND FURTHERMORE ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY,
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE DOWN THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND BACK INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. SOME MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT DIPPING TOES INTO
THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE OTHERS ARE SUGGESTING IT STALLS
OUT NORTH OF US AND NEVER MAKES IT IN. WILL STICK WITH GUIDANCE
FOR NOW WITH THIS, AND THAT BRINGS A MEDIUM CHANCE (60%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BUT IT
WON'T FEEL LIKE IT. WE'LL BE TRAPPED IN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY (LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
20-50%).
WE WILL ALSO TURN UP THE HEAT AS TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND JUST IN THE UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS SET UP WILL ALSO PUSH
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT RIGHT NOW VALUES ARE
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS THOUGH, YOU WILL NEED TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BECAUSE WE DO NOT FEEL ACCLIMATED TO THE HIGH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS LONG QUITE YET, SO ENSURE THAT YOU
STAY HYDRATED AND SLOW DOWN TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT MANY LOCAL AIRPORTS EARLY THIS
MORNING, A COMBINATION OF LGT BR/FG AND IFR-LEVEL STRATUS MAY
IMPACT BOTH HSV/MSL AT TIMES, WARRANTING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE
CONDITIONS. EVEN WITH A FEW LINGERING PATCHES OF LGT RA ACROSS THE
REGION, WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO EXIST THRU SUNRISE, BUT WITH
EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE CELLS TO OCCUR BTWN 12-16Z AS THE
MOIST AIRMASS BEGINS TO DIURNALLY DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
SFC TROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE
GREATER TOMORROW (COMPARED TO TODAY), WITH THE TIMEFRAME OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR IMPACTS FROM LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS COMING BTWN 16-22Z. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS MAY INFILTRATE THE REGION BEGINNING
TOMORROW EVENING. THUS, WE WILL INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION BEYOND
22Z, AND ADVERTISE GRADUAL SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUD LAYER.
PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSE AT 5-10 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALZ001-005-006-009.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...70/DD
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