505
FXUS64 KHUN 082319
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD RISK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR MUCH OF NORTH
AL AND ALL OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES BY LATE THIS WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS NOW SERVING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. FARTHER WEST, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MS. WHILE RECENT HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION AS THEY MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY, THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.2" WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITHIN ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION.
THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BECOMES ENHANCED ALONG THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MAY BE A
FOCUS FOR REPEATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND ONGOING FLOODING FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, IT WILL TAKE
VERY LITTLE RAIN TO PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TREAT ALL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS AS LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF
DRIVING THROUGH RAINFALL, OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURES, AND NEVER
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!
RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE LOW RAIN CHANCES
START TO CREEP BACK IN ACROSS NORTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT ANY AREAS THAT FLOOD
TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO AN
INCREASED THREAT TO LIFE DUE TO LOWER VISIBILITY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. WITH PWATS
STILL NEAR 2", ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD WORSEN FLOOD
CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE STORMS, THE
FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AT THIS TIME BUT
FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. CONVECTION WILL BECOME
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH RAIN
CHANCES CAPPING NEAR 30% WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD DANGEROUS HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. BE SURE TO KEEP
HEAT SAFETY IN MIND FOR ANY OUTDOOR PLANS LATER THIS WEEK!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS WILL BE
DAMPENED AS A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF A TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND FURTHERMORE ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY,
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE DOWN THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND BACK INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. SOME MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT DIPPING TOES INTO
THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE OTHERS ARE SUGGESTING IT STALLS
OUT NORTH OF US AND NEVER MAKES IT IN. WILL STICK WITH GUIDANCE
FOR NOW WITH THIS, AND THAT BRINGS A MEDIUM CHANCE (60%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BUT IT
WON'T FEEL LIKE IT. WE'LL BE TRAPPED IN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY (LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
20-50%).
WE WILL ALSO TURN UP THE HEAT AS TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND JUST IN THE UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS SET UP WILL ALSO PUSH
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT RIGHT NOW VALUES ARE
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS THOUGH, YOU WILL NEED TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BECAUSE WE DO NOT FEEL ACCLIMATED TO THE HIGH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS LONG QUITE YET, SO ENSURE THAT YOU
STAY HYDRATED AND SLOW DOWN TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF LOWERED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING NORTHWARD. AWWS ARE LIKELY AT KHSV THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001-005>010-016.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...HC
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