978
FXUS64 KHUN 090902
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40% OR LESS) WILL RETURN TUESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A LOW RISK OF FLOODING ISSUES
- HEAT RISK INCREASES BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND
CULLMAN COUNTY, IT APPEARS THAT THE FOG IS MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE
LARGER RIVER VALLEYS IN THIS REGION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE RISKS FROM VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.
THROUGH SUNRISE, THE COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS (AND A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN) ORIGINATING FROM AN MCV
ACROSS CENTRAL KY WILL INCREASE AS WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE NW, AND
THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWFA.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (INITIALLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF) WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A SECOND MCV DIVING INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY,
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-40% COVERAGE)
WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL. ELSEWHERE, POPS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20% RANGE, BUT REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, SOILS
REMAIN SATURATED AND STEERING CURRENTS WILL SLOWLY COLLAPSE AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS. THUS, WITH PWAT
VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.8-1.9" RANGE, FLASH FLOODING MAY STILL
OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE M80S-L90S IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 70S, HEAT INDICES
WILL REACH THE 95-100F RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA, LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN PRIMARILY NORTH
OF THE TN RIVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN RECENT
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A DRIER FORECAST, WHICH IS WHY WE'VE ALLOWED THE
FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AND CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER ONE. THAT BEING SAID, A LOW RISK OF FLOODING DOES REMAIN
IF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY
IN NE AL WHERE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED VERY SATURATED
SOILS). IN THIS AREA, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS CONTINUED
TO HOLD A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CAUSING FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND RAIN
CHANCES SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF
RAIN LIMITED TO NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA, A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY
THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. OVERALL, OUR HEAT RISK IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS, WHICH WILL AFFECT THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AS WELL AS ANYONE WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION. WE CONTINUE TO URGE EVERYONE TO REMAIN
HYDRATED, AVOID OUTDOOR LABOR DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY
(IF POSSIBLE), AND WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT/COOL LAYERS. ADDITIONALLY,
AVOID LEAVING ANY PETS OR PEOPLE IN VEHICLES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY ALONG
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100-103 DEGREES. ONE
THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH FRIDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
AND RETURNING RAIN CHANCES AFFECT THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD
FRONT TRAVELS AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND (ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES) AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS FORECAST REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WE REITERATE TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEVELOPING
NW FLOW ALOFT SPREADS DEBRIS CLOUDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CONVECTION
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WE WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR (AT LEAST UNTIL
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF BR/FG LATE TUE EVENING). A FEW
SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR THIS AFTN REGION-WIDE, BUT CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS AT EITHER TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE OFFICIAL
TAFS. SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM SSE-SSW, WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS OF
5-10 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
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