025
FXUS64 KHUN 091600
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40% OR LESS) WILL LINGER THROUGH TODAY
WITH A LOW RISK OF FLOODING IF STORMS TRACK ACROSS PREVIOUSLY
FLOODED AREAS IN NORTHEAST AL.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MONITORING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF TODAY RESULTING IN AN ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID BUT HOT
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT PWATS ARE AROUND 2"
OR BELOW TODAY WHICH IS STILL HIGH BUT NOT AS DANGEROUSLY HIGH AS
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
YESTERDAY'S STORMS EXITING TO OUR EAST, THERE WILL BE LESS SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION LOCALLY AND THUS WE HAVE POPS CAPPED AT 40% OR
LOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN TODAY. WITH STILL WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT, ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THE AREA WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FLOODING THIS WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF THIS, HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
HUMIDITY BRINGING HEAT INDICES TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. PLEASE
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BY PROTECTING YOUR SKIN, STAYING HYDRATED,
AND NEVER LEAVING PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AL. WE WILL
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT IN CASE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE MET.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA, LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN PRIMARILY NORTH
OF THE TN RIVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN RECENT
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A DRIER FORECAST, WHICH IS WHY WE'VE ALLOWED THE
FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AND CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER ONE. THAT BEING SAID, A LOW RISK OF FLOODING DOES REMAIN
IF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY
IN NE AL WHERE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED VERY SATURATED
SOILS). IN THIS AREA, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS CONTINUED
TO HOLD A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CAUSING FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND RAIN
CHANCES SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF
RAIN LIMITED TO NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA, A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY
THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. OVERALL, OUR HEAT RISK IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS, WHICH WILL AFFECT THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AS WELL AS ANYONE WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION. WE CONTINUE TO URGE EVERYONE TO REMAIN
HYDRATED, AVOID OUTDOOR LABOR DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY
(IF POSSIBLE), AND WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT/COOL LAYERS. ADDITIONALLY,
AVOID LEAVING ANY PETS OR PEOPLE IN VEHICLES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY ALONG
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100-103 DEGREES. ONE
THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH FRIDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
AND RETURNING RAIN CHANCES AFFECT THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD
FRONT TRAVELS AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND (ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES) AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS FORECAST REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WE REITERATE TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AND HAVE HANDLED THIS
WITH A TEMPO FOR NOW. THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD COVER
BREAKS UP. A LOW CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO AS WELL AS
PATCHY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP
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