191
FXUS64 KHUN 100214
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- HEAT RISK INCREASES THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- MONITORING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MCS THAT HAS ROLLED SOUTHEAST FROM MIDDLE TN WILL ENTER FAR
NORTHEAST AL OVER THE NEXT HOUR, BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE. SAND
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WAS ALSO DECAYING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. PATCHY FOG WILL INEVITABLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT LEAST A PARTIALLY CLEARING SKY.
THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEAST AL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY, A 5H RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST
FROM TX INTO THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND THE COMPLEX TERRAIN ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A VERY WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST. HEAT
INDICES MAY PEAK AROUND 100, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOALS AND
HUNTSVILLE METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SIMILAR WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST. THE SHOALS METRO MAY PEAK NEAR
95. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK AROUND 100 IN THE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE METRO AREAS. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AL, MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH TN INTO NORTH AL AND MS. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN RATHER BUOYANT CAPE
VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES AND A SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING RISK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND A RESULTANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO EXIST ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL GREATLY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREA. A SFC HIGH CENTERED IN
THE GULF WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN PWATS REACHING AROUND 1.5-2"
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
PER SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT BMX. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, WHICH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND
CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL (RISK LEVEL 1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK ON SATURDAY AND AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS (PENDING
ADDITIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN TRENDS) WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ~1500 J/KG DURING DIURNAL HEATING BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM. DESPITE SHEAR REMAINING WEAK, A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS COULD EXIST IF FORCING MATERIALIZES FOR OUR AREA. RECENT
TRENDS CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER, SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FORCING FOR STORMS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT WILL ALSO BE OF CONTINUED CONCERN AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND,
BE SURE TO KEEP UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE SURE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. HOWEVER, A CLUSTER OF
+TSRA IN MIDDLE TN MAY CLIP AREAS FROM NEAR KTHA-KBGF BETWEEN
23-01Z. BUT THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW FOR KHSV AND KMSL OF ANY
ACTIVITY TONIGHT. WE WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY VALLEY FG AS WELL,
BUT SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...17
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