690
FXUS64 KHUN 101456
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
956 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HEAT RISK INCREASES THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95
TO 103 DEGREE RANGE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- MONITORING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A
A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS NOSING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION AND FOR THIS REASON, POPS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10% OR
LESS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER, A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE COMPLEX TERRAIN ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU COULD RESULT IN A ROGUE STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, HIGHS
WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S, WILL PUSH
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BETWEEN 95-102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
CAUTION IS URGED FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS AND HEAT SAFETY IS
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT, BUT HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUES AS LOWS REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AGAIN SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. HEAT WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL
PUSH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 97-103 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. A BIT OF
A CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY FLATTENS AND A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE MAY AID IN SOME LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (40-70%) COVERAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. CLOUD COVER WON'T SUPPRESS THE HEAT TOO MUCH, WITH
LOWER 90S HIGHS STILL COMMON (ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES AND A SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING RISK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND A RESULTANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO EXIST ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL GREATLY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREA. A SFC HIGH CENTERED IN
THE GULF WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN PWATS REACHING AROUND 1.5-2"
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
PER SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT BMX. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, WHICH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND
CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL (RISK LEVEL 1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK ON SATURDAY AND AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS (PENDING
ADDITIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN TRENDS) WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ~1500 J/KG DURING DIURNAL HEATING BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM. DESPITE SHEAR REMAINING WEAK, A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS COULD EXIST IF FORCING MATERIALIZES FOR OUR AREA. RECENT
TRENDS CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER, SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FORCING FOR STORMS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT WILL ALSO BE OF CONTINUED CONCERN AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND,
BE SURE TO KEEP UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE SURE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS A CALM-LGT SE FLOW WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR BRIEF
MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS (IN LGT BR/FG) THRU 13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 16Z AND DISSIPATE
AROUND 0Z. LATER THIS MORNING, SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SSW AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS, BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70
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