118
FXUS64 KHUN 110326
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1026 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HEAT RISK INCREASES THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95
TO 103 DEGREE RANGE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- MONITORING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
LATE THIS EVENING, THE TN VALLEY IS LOCATED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPR SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF COASTAL
PLAIN, WHILE THE BROAD SFC RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
HELPED TO MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. DRY AIR ALOFT IN
THE MID/UPR WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALONG WITH A CAPPING INVERSION
LIMITED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND KEPT SKY CONDITIONS MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DIURNAL HEATING THAT SPAWNED CU
DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY HAS CEASED, AND NOW WE ARE LEFT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WHICH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
COULD AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST BASED ON GENERALLY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THURSDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL LEAD TO AN EASTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE UPR RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION. SIMILAR TO TODAY, FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES WILL FEATURE SUBSTANTIVE CAPES, BUT A DEEP LAYER
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION. SHEAR IS
ALSO LACKING WITH WIND SPEEDS LARGELY LESS THAN 30 KTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE CONVECTIVE COLUMN. A FEW SHOWERS COULDN'T BE RULED OUT,
WITH BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT POPS
WILL BE AT/BELOW 10 PCT.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. A COLD
FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. INCREASED
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING FRONT AND THE ADDED
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE VERTICAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO BEGIN
TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE CONCERNING ON FRIDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CAPES
>3000 J/KG ALONG WITH HEAVY WATER/MOISTURE LOADING (PWS ~2 INCHES)
AND LARGE THETA-E MAX/MIN DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
SUGGEST A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT SFC
HEATING, WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PRESENCE OF PRECEDING
CLOUD COVER IN ASSOC/W THE FRONT.
THE ULTIMATE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT IS UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS
REASONABLE POTENTIAL IT MAY STALL IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS, A DEVELOPING/EXPANDING RIDGE CENTERED IN THE GULF
WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OF LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS ANOTHER, IN WHAT WILL
BE A SERIES OF VORT MAXIMA ROTATE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ALONG
THE BROADER TROUGH/RIDGE INTERFACE. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL TEND TO BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE WITH FURTHER FORECAST REFINEMENT. AFTER ALL,
THIS INVOLVES TIMING DETAILS ON DAY 3 WHILE THERE IS STILL A RANGE
OF DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING SCENARIOS. NEVERTHELESS, AT THIS
TIME, FORECAST THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG UPDRAFTS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS.
LASTLY, IT SHOULD BE STATED THAT HEAT INDICES COULD REACH UPWARDS
OF ~97-102 F DURING THE FRI/SAT PERIOD, BUT WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS, AND ITS TIMING. OTHER DATA FROM WBGT AND HEAT RISK
SUGGEST THAT WE COULD BE NEAR CRITERIA FOR ENHANCED HEAT
MESSAGING, BUT THAT'S NOT REAL CLEAR AT THE MOMENT GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR INCREASED CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUED AND
INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AS MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FORECAST. RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON WEATHER LOCALLY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. AS THIS HAPPENS, A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS CONVERGENT FLOW INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. MEDIUM TO HIGH POPS WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, PEAKING DURING DIURNAL HEATING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE FLOODING THREAT WILL COME TO AN END DUE
TO DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. THESE DETAILS SHOULD COME INTO BETTER
FOCUS OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT THE WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FUTURE OUTLOOKS
LIKELY HIGHLIGHTING THE RISK THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM
2-2.3" WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW.
STEERING FLOW LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS PAST WEEK, BUT
STRONGER FORCING MAY RESULT IN BOTH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS LEADING TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE IF BETTER SHEAR IS REALIZED, BUT
THAT SEEMS TO BE THE SECONDARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY IN THE AIR, HEAT INDICES WILL STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME RELIEF COMING
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THOSE
WITH INTERESTS OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE PREPARED FOR THE DUEL THREAT OF
FLOODING AND HEAT!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV AND KMSL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KDW
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