619
FXUS64 KHUN 111344
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
844 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 844 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HEAT RISK INCREASES THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95
TO 103 DEGREE RANGE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 844 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS. A LIGHT SSW/SW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE A
VERY WARM, MOIST AIR MASS AS EVIDENCE BY DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 97-103 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA. CAUTION IS URGED FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS AND
HEAT SAFETY IS STRONGLY ENCOURAGED! WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER BREAK FROM
RAIN CHANCES TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON, POPS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 10% OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
AFTER SUNSET, ANY CU THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AND THE RESULT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT
WILL STILL FEEL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 844 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SWINGING TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL FORCE A WEAK FRONT SE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL CREATE A VERY WARM, MOIST, AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DESPITE MORNING CLOUD COVER, HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND PWATS AROUND 2". THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS (ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING) IN THE AFTERNOON (40-70% CHANCE). THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT
SE/ESE WITH THE FRONT THROUGH FROM MID AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING
(3 TO 9 PM), BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN.
THE STORM ENVIRONMENT AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS WINDOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT AN
INVERTED-V PROFILE (WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS
WELL). THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE SETUP WITH DOWNBURSTS AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FAVORING IN PROGGED DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM, WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL ALOFT
AND ASSISTING IN STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL (GIVING US ADDITIONAL
CONFIDENCE IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT). ADDITIONALLY, WE'LL HAVE
PLENTY OF SBCAPE (3000-4000 J/KG) AND MLCAPE (2500-3000 J/KG).
CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS OF AROUND 8 KTS INDICATE THAT SOME
BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY AND GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PWATS
AND MOIST SOILS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN.
THE STORMS WILL WANE BY THE LATE EVENING, WITH A BREAK IN THE
ACTION OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONT WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL
AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE, BUT IT MAY STILL FAVOR A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL. GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL
AGAIN FAVOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUED AND
INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AS MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FORECAST. RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON WEATHER LOCALLY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. AS THIS HAPPENS, A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS CONVERGENT FLOW INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. MEDIUM TO HIGH POPS WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, PEAKING DURING DIURNAL HEATING TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE FLOODING THREAT WILL COME TO AN END DUE
TO DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. THESE DETAILS SHOULD COME INTO BETTER
FOCUS OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT THE WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FUTURE OUTLOOKS
LIKELY HIGHLIGHTING THE RISK THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM
2-2.3" WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW.
STEERING FLOW LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS PAST WEEK, BUT
STRONGER FORCING MAY RESULT IN BOTH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS LEADING TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE IF BETTER SHEAR IS REALIZED, BUT
THAT SEEMS TO BE THE SECONDARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY IN THE AIR, HEAT INDICES WILL STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME RELIEF COMING
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THOSE
WITH INTERESTS OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE PREPARED FOR THE DUEL THREAT OF
FLOODING AND HEAT!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY 16Z AS STRONG WARMING OF THE
LOCALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN THE FORMATION OF SCT-BKN
CU IN THE 3500-6000 FT LAYER. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING AS THE CU FIELD BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNSET. MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE OH
VALLEY AND OZARKS, AND ALTHOUGH A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD OCCUR IN OUR
REGION PRIOR TO 12Z (WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT), WE WILL NOT
ADVERTISE THIS IN THE FORECAST ATTM. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SW AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
THIS RANGE OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...70
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