787
FXUS64 KHUN 120258
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HEAT RISK INCREASES THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95
TO 103 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT IS AHEAD FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS CURRENT
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 9PM. WILL FEEL
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT, AS A HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF FOG IN AND NEAR
RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS, A VERY HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DRY AIR AT THE SFC AND THE MID LEVELS, AND
DCAPE UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS THE FRONT MOVES NEAR THE AREA, IT WILL
BE THE FORCING MECHANISM TO KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE THREAT FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG, SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS
PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.8-1.9" WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.
ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES COULD RISE AS HIGH
AS 103 DEGREES. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE WEATHER
THREATS AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER INDOORS QUICKLY IF A STORM
MOVES NEAR. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR
PETS UNATTENDED IN HOT VEHICLES!
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY BUT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARE
PROGGED TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE
TN VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE
MUCH OF NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN REMAINS IN A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS. THIS WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING HOURS. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS
THE CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN PWATS IN THE 2-2.2"
RANGE, ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LATE LAST
WEEKEND. GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LINGERING SOGGY GROUND,
IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE RAIN THAT FALLS TO BECOME RUNOFF
AND START TO CAUSE RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS. PLEASE REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE MINDFUL OF THE FLOODING
THREAT ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE TRAVELING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE A CONTINUED
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT
SATURATED SOILS. MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL ARE FORECAST AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE EASTWARD OVER THE TN VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER THE
AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING PWATS AROUND 1.8-2.2", WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX CLIMATOLOGY. THEREFORE, THESE
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WHICH GREATLY INFLUENCES
HOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS AS WELL AS IF THERE'S A RISK FOR STRONGER
STORMS. CURRENTLY, INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON
FRONTAL PLACEMENT/TIMING, THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW, HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE AND URGE EVERYONE WITH
OUTDOOR INTERESTS TO CHECK BACK IN FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH DECREASED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE NEAR AND JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC
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