516
FXUS64 KHUN 130451
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1151 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH
REMNANT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW ALABAMA QUICKLY DISSIPATING
WITH THE SETTING SUN. MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER THINS OUT, BUT GIVEN RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THINK THAT
SOME DECENT CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY, BUT THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND PARTIAL CLEARING MAY LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION (30-40%) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY -- ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORM CHANCES, EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 96 TO 102 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY. A COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF A FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST THAT WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER, IT MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY (09-12Z),
BRINGING STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
(70-80% CHANCE), WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN
THIS BIGGEST CONCERN. GUIDANCE WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWS IT DROPPING
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUING
DURING THIS WINDOW. WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY, OUR HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DISPLACED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALABAMA -- WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN STORY FOR MONDAY WILL BE THE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A COLD FRONT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BRINGING A TEMPORARY BUT MUCH
WELCOMED BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN FACT, TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS, PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS WELL WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
(60-80%) TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK STILL REMAINS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN
MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT THIS RANGE, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 09-12Z AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. CU WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP.24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page