535
FXUS64 KHUN 131547
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1047 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- HEAT RISK IS MODERATE TO MAJOR TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
95-103 F.
- LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RISK OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVENT MUCH RELIEF FROM
THIS HEAT FOR THOSE OUTDOORS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN A MODERATE
HEAT RISK WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK. IN TURN, HEAT
WILL AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AS WELL AS THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION. BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BY
STAYING HYDRATED AND SEEKING SHADE THIS AFTERNOON IF OUTDOORS.
DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW CHANCE
(30% OR LESS) OF A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE AREA, CAPE OF ~3000 J/KG
AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW A GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING EXISTS WITH SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL ALLOW A LOW FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
FORM AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND A SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL MCS THAT SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF SAID MCS, WITH SOME HAVING IT FULLY DECAY BEFORE
REACHING NW AL. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO MAKE IT TO NW AL BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES I-65. CURRENT TIMING FOR ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NW
IS 06-08Z. SLOW CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS IN ADDITION TO HIGH PWATS
(~1.9-2.1") WILL SUPPORT A MEDIUM THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AS
THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND ~800-1000 J/KG.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK WEAK ALONG WITH STRONG
BACKING ALOFT, SO TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND REMAIN
OFF THE TABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND
50% DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A SFC HIGH IN THE GULF/FLORIDA REGION WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE FOR THE TN VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY, CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH PWATS
AND A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. RECENT HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATES POPS
PRIMARILY BRING IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, KEEPING RAINFALL SCATTERED SPATIALLY IN NATURE.
HAVE KEPT IN 30-60% POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO THIS AFTERNOON (BUT BETTER FORCING),
ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
AT LEAST A GUSTY WIND THREAT AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GENERALLY QUICK-
MOVING AND A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE UNLIKELY.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SUNDAY. DESPITE NOT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC AT THIS TIME, A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
EXISTS.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
GULF, LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
HANGING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA (PRIMARILY
CULLMAN). ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP US RELATIVELY COOLER AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGHOUT THE TN VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A COLD FRONT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BRINGING A TEMPORARY BUT MUCH
WELCOMED BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN FACT, TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS, PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS WELL WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
(60-80%) TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK STILL REMAINS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN
MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT THIS RANGE, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
PATCHY DENSE FG IN SEVERAL RIVER VALLEYS WILL DISSIPATE BY ~14Z.
THIS WILL AFFECT KMSL AND AREAS NEAR KHSV WITH VISIBILITY OF
1/4SM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALSO, VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD (AFTER 06Z) ENTERING
FAR NORTHWEST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT KMSL OR KHSV, SO CHECK FUTURE UPDATES LATER
TODAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17
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