253
FXUS64 KHUN 132314
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
614 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- HEAT RISK IS MODERATE TO MAJOR TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
95-103 F.
- LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RISK OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD
ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND ~1000
J/KG ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8.0 C/KM, GUSTY
TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.9" (NEAR THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE
PER BMX CLIMATOLOGY) PROVE ANY DEVELOPED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION TO THIS, CORFIDI UPSHEAR
VECTORS ARE STILL INDICATIVE OF BACKBUILDING/TRAINING AS STORMS
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE, FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
TO BE A THREAT IN AREAS WHERE THIS OCCURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL MPAS
RRFS HAS ALSO SHOWN CONVECTION SPINNING UP ALONG AND WEST OF I-65
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS IN NW AL. THESE STORMS SHOULD LOSE ENERGY WITH
SUNSET AND THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN MCS SET TO
APPROACH NORTHWEST AL.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS FROM THE
PREVIOUS AFD, EXCEPT THAT IS HAS TRENDED EARLIER. THE ARRIVAL
TIME FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW LOOKING CLOSER TO 10 PM - 12 AM
(MIDNIGHT) TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO QUICKLY
WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER, A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS CONTINUES TO EXIST.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT AROUND 11-13Z AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
PREVIOUS AFD:
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVENT MUCH
RELIEF FROM THIS HEAT FOR THOSE OUTDOORS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN A
MODERATE HEAT RISK WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK. IN
TURN, HEAT WILL AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AS WELL AS THOSE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION. BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY BY STAYING HYDRATED AND SEEKING SHADE THIS AFTERNOON IF
OUTDOORS.
DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW CHANCE
(30% OR LESS) OF A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE AREA, CAPE OF ~3000 J/KG
AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW A GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING EXISTS WITH SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL ALLOW A LOW FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
FORM AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND A SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL MCS THAT SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF SAID MCS, WITH SOME HAVING IT FULLY DECAY BEFORE
REACHING NW AL. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO MAKE IT TO NW AL BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES I-65. CURRENT TIMING FOR ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NW
IS 06-08Z. CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS IN ADDITION TO HIGH PWATS
(~1.9-2.1") WILL SUPPORT A MEDIUM THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND ~800-1000 J/KG.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK WEAK ALONG WITH STRONG
BACKING ALOFT, SO TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND REMAIN
OFF THE TABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND
50% DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A SFC HIGH IN THE GULF/FLORIDA REGION WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE FOR THE TN VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY, CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH PWATS
AND A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. RECENT HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATES POPS
PRIMARILY BRING IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, KEEPING RAINFALL SCATTERED SPATIALLY IN NATURE.
HAVE KEPT IN 30-60% POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO THIS AFTERNOON (BUT BETTER FORCING),
ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
AT LEAST A GUSTY WIND THREAT AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GENERALLY QUICK-
MOVING AND A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE UNLIKELY.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SUNDAY. DESPITE NOT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC AT THIS TIME, A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
EXISTS.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
GULF, LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
HANGING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA (PRIMARILY
CULLMAN). ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP US RELATIVELY COOLER AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGHOUT THE TN VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A COLD FRONT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BRINGING A TEMPORARY BUT MUCH
WELCOMED BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN FACT, TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS, PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS WELL WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
(60-80%) TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK STILL REMAINS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN
MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT THIS RANGE, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING
AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
AT BOTH TERMINALS. AWWS AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
WINDOW. THUS, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO BETWEEN 02-06Z TO ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION. CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON (ADDED A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATE IN
THE PERIOD). WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AND GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP.24
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