046
FXUS64 KHUN 142010
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, WITH A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
- DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE
AREA, EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER, WHERE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE.
- MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID AND LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
REPEAT EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AS OF THE MID AFTERNOON, AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG) WERE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WAS 48 MPH AT THE NW
ALABAMA REGIONAL AIRPORT IN MUSCLE SHOALS AROUND 215 PM. THIS
CONVECTION MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG, AND STILL STEEP 7.5 DEGREE C
PER KM LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE REMAINS CHANCES THAT SOME OF
THE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN INTENSITY, WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD HELP IN HAIL PRODUCTION, BUT
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 15KFT WILL MAKE THAT NOT AS LIKELY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING.
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN
THIS EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S, VERSUS SEASONABLE LOWS OF
AROUND 68 DEGREES. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
AND NEAR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED OVER THE ONTARIO, HUDSON BAY,
QUEBEC OF SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA, SHOULD REMAIN OVER THAT REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY MONDAY MORNING, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE POSITIONED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FROM SE
VIRGINIA, TO SOUTH OF ATLANTA, NEAR MONTGOMERY, TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA, POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY ACROSS SOME OF OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. ALTHOUGH WE'RE APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OF JUNE,
THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS A "REAL" BOUNDARY DEPICTING TWO
DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SE
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
A COOLER TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT FAR
NORTHERN ALABAMA, TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. LOCATIONS NEAR
LARGER BODIES OF WATER SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID 60S. IT SHOULD BE
A TAD WARMER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ALSO A
BIT MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. NORMAL HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 89/68 FOR REFERENCE.
FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, THE PRESENCE
OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND NEARBY POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP LOWER END RAIN CHANCES GOING FOR OUR AREAS SOUTH OF OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AS A LARGE, UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EASTWARD AND
FLATTENS, MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS APPEARS TO CHANGE COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK AND LARGELY PERSIST OVER THIS REGION
INTO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO APPROACH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY, WITH FROPA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. OVERALL,
EXPECT A DRY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%)
OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER FROPA ON FRIDAY,
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THEN DECREASE BY SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BUT WITH LOWER BULK SHEAR ON THURSDAY COMPARED WITH FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, WHILE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN,
WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL COMPLETELY (ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING BY LATE WEEK. PWATS INCREASE FROM AROUND 1.7
INCHES ON THURSDAY TO OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEEP IN MIND THAT PWATS OVER 2 INCHES ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION,
EVEN WITH A BRIEF "DRIER" PERIOD EARLY IN THE WEEK, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SATURATED (THE GROUND IS VERY WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL). THUS, THESE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO EVEN SUB-SEVERE
WINDS, MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DOWNED TREES. OVERALL, PLEASE
STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES!
LASTLY, FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH, IT'LL BE A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO
INCREASED RAIN/STORM CHANCES. LOWS WILL INCREASE TO BE IN THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE, BUT ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BE COOLER (IN THE 60S) BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE FURTHER TO
THE EAST COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 50KT AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR, AT TIMES IFR AND LOWER WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR WHEN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. WINDS NOW FROM THE SW-W AT 10-20KT, SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NW AND DIMINISH BELOW 7KT LATER IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AFTER DAYBREAK MON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB
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