075
FXUS64 KHUN 150806
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
306 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS THINNING MID LEVEL STRATUS WITH A
FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS AND SO FAR NO FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL STILL
NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AS SOME OBSERVATIONS SHOW CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 2 DEGREES OR LESS. THE ONLY REAL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONT BEING
POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH WHICH BROUGHT OUR RAIN CHANCES TO LESS
THAN 10%. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AREAS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER HAVE A LOW CHANCE (<10%) OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY; HOWEVER, THESE PROBABILITIES REALLY DEPEND
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES. IF IT ONLY MAKES IT JUST SOUTH
OF CULLMAN COUNTY, THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE HIGHER COMPARED TO IF THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. EVEN SO,
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING HOLD, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT DRIER TOO, SO
ENJOY THE LESS MUGGY AND COOLER WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS!
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL MEANDER GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, AND GEORGIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH
OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOWN BY MODELS HOVER BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY WILL BE THE QUESTION WHEN IT COMES
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE COOLER AND A BIT DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVERALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE A BIT
ON WEDNESDAY TO 20-40% DURING THE DAY. THESE LOOK TO BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY WITH A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY, BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUS, NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE'VE SEEN
RECENTLY, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S! TUESDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MILD DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BY
MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT DROP DOWN
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS PWATS INTO THE 1.9-2.1" RANGE (ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX AND OHX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY).
ADDITIONALLY, CAPE WILL YIELD PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH
VALUES REACHING AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT AS WHETHER IT APPROACHES
DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING VERSUS OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS
LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
POTENTIAL THREATS ON THE TABLE FOR US. NO MATTER THE DETAILS,
THERE REMAINS HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BE OUR PRIMARY FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM AS IT COULD
BRING ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE AREA. ANOTHER THREAT TO
WATCH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. WE WILL
BE MONITORING HOW RAIN CHANCES AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER AFFECT
THESE TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAINFALL
CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL AL. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND, WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO CHECK
BACK IN FOR UPDATES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED IF FOG BEGINS TO IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25
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