090
FXUS64 KHUN 152300
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 842 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF THE
TN RIVER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING ON THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE NEW MODELS, NBM, AND CAMS SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVING
SOONER IN CULLMAN COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT, BUT HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH WHAT THE NBM HAS SUGGESTED. OTHERWISE, HAVE ALSO
ADDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY LAST THE LONGEST TONIGHT BEFORE THICKER
CLOUDS ARRIVE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN NORTH AL.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL SKIRT OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH HOWEVER WHERE SOUTHERLY INFLOW MEETS UP
WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOWER
80S VALLEYS. WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT DROP DOWN
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS PWATS INTO THE 1.9-2.1" RANGE (ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX AND OHX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY).
ADDITIONALLY, CAPE WILL YIELD PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH
VALUES REACHING AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT AS WHETHER IT APPROACHES
DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING VERSUS OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS
LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
POTENTIAL THREATS ON THE TABLE FOR US. NO MATTER THE DETAILS,
THERE REMAINS HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BE OUR PRIMARY FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM AS IT COULD
BRING ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE AREA. ANOTHER THREAT TO
WATCH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. WE WILL
BE MONITORING HOW RAIN CHANCES AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER AFFECT
THESE TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAINFALL
CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL AL. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND, WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO CHECK
BACK IN FOR UPDATES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TERMINALS BY
8-9Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER REDUCTION
POTENTIAL (AND DENSE FOG). VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN ONCE
FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 13Z, ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME CALM THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO WILL THEN TAKE HOLD LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...26
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