837
FXUS64 KHUN 160813
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE HEATRISK ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95-100F
FORECAST.
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS
MORNING DESPITE CALM WINDS AREA WIDE AND NEAR 0 DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION MAINLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE CLOUD
COVER IS LOWEST, BUT EVEN IN CLEAR SKY AREAS OF TN WE HAVE SEEN
VERY LITTLE FOG FORMATION AS OF THIS WRITING. TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING RANGE FROM A COMFORTABLE 60-65 DEGREES AND WE WILL ENJOY
ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT A MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH A STALLED SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA.
THIS WILL LARGELY KEEP AREAS NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER DRY,
WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF
THE RIVER. ALTHOUGH WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG
STORM, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING. WHILE
BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS
ALSO A QUESTION DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS, IF YOU
WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, IF YOU HEAR THUNDER OR
SEE A FLASH, SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
LASTLY, EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA (SUCH AS FLORENCE/MUSCLE SHOALS) MAY PEAK
CLOSER TO THE MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE
WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF TRAVERSES LOUSIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARDS
ALABAMA. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THESE DETAILS WILL
HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE LATER THIS WEEK;
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 60-90% ON THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (AND ALSO INTO FRIDAY - SEE MORE
BELOW). AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS INCREASING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY (AND
INTO/THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL, DISCUSSED MORE BELOW). MODEL PWATS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES OR SO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND OR GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHEN
COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THEREFORE, THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND BRING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES. WITH THE GROUND STILL SATURATED
FORM RECENT RAINFALL, THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING/FLOODING. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISES IN LOCAL CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS AS WELL (ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND). OVERALL,
THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER WHO HAS
HIGHLIGHTED ALL OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PLEASE
CHECK BACK FOR FORECAST UPDATES AND REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL END THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE RAIN. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY ARRIVED BY NOW OR IF IT
WILL PUSH IN FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE TO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S, AND
PWATS 1.9-2.1" WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE BEST SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED PRETTY FAR NORTH OF US, AND
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SO
RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS ALREADY PLACED US IN A
SLIGHT ERO FOR FRIDAY. REGARDLESS, WITH THE RAINFALL THAT WE
RECEIVE THIS WEEK, WE WILL SEE RISES IN RIVERS, CREEKS AND STREAMS
ON FRIDAY, WITH ISSUES LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN THE NASA SPORT STREAM HEIGHTS MODEL FOR SOME CREEKS
AND RIVERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST GETS FURTHER
COMPLICATED WHEN ASKING THE QUESTIONS, AT WHAT PACE DOES THE COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND AT WHAT TRAJECTORY DOES THE
LEFT OVERS OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE REGION? IF
THE COLD FRONT IF ABLE TO GET SOUTH OF US PRETTY QUICK ON FRIDAY,
IT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN CENTRAL AL. IF NOT, OR
IF IT STALLS OUT OVER US, WE WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS, THUS
MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS.
POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE RAINFALL
RELIEF FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH, AS LOW
CHANCES (30-40%) RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
DISTURBANCE THAT SCOOTS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED THIS EVENING AS HIGH CIRRUS
CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS FOG
FORMATION INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND
BEGIN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING, BUT THIS REMAINS
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25/26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25
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