397
FXUS64 KHUN 170719
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
219 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER
TODAY.
- MODERATE HEATRISK TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH FORECAST HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
90-100F.
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS
SATELLITE SHOWS DENSE LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT THIS LOW STRATUS (WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOGGY
AREAS ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN) TO LINGER THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK APART BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS (10-25%)
SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER. THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE
THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
BRING HEAT INDICES TO THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE. PLEASE REMEMBER TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TODAY BY STAYING HYDRATED, TAKING FREQUENT
BREAKS FROM THE SUN, AND NEVER LEAVING PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED
IN HOT VEHICLES!
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLATED TO
APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER NORTH ALABAMA SOMETIME ON THURSDAY;
HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION,
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE,
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES (70-90%) THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
THEN DECREASING INTO THE 60S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, ALONG WITH ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WILL BE THE BIG
THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS HOW FAST THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION (AND THEIR EVENTUAL INTERACTION) WILL
HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE HERE IN NORTH ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IF THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IS ACTUALLY MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS AND OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ALIGNS WITH THIS, THEN
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO OUR SOUTH.
MODEL PROBABILITIES TODAY INDICATE THAT THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (30-40%) OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH SHOWED A 50-70% CHANCE OF RAINFALL
GREATER THAN AN INCH (AND 30-40% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES).
STAY TUNED AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES AND
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
OVERALL, REGARDLESS OF EXACT AMOUNTS, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SINCE MODEL
PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 1.7 INCHES TO AT LEAST 2.0 INCHES (SOME SPOTS
MAY SEE VALUES OVER 2 INCHES). THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY RIGHT
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS LINES UP WITH WPC'S SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO) DUE TO ADEQUATE THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING. ULTIMATELY, PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE AND
REMEMBER: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED
ROADS!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ON SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. THIS
WILL GIVE US A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE RAIN WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
(5-15%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN PLACE, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES SOUTH
OF THE TN RIVER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL DRY OUT ENOUGH TO GET ANY POSTPONED YARD
WORK DONE. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DRIER FORECAST WON'T LAST LONG. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START BACK UP ON FATHER'S DAY/SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES SLIDING
THROUGH AND A SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH
VALLEY. LOOK FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS AROUND 70
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
IFR TO LIFR STRATUS CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN TRACKING NORTH AND WILL
SOON APPROACH THE TN RIVER. THIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 8-9Z, IF NOT SOONER. LOW STRATUS OR FOG IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANGES IN CATEGORIES. OTHERWISE,
CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20KTS AT TIMES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25
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