760
FXUS64 KHUN 171942
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
242 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER
TODAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
UNDER A LOW SCATTERED CLOUD DECK, TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN OUR AREA. THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE AIDED IN PUSHING LOW TO MID 70S DEW POINTS
INTO NORTH AL. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, DEW POINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MOST PLACES REACHING 70 DEGREES OR
HIGHER. THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOW RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST (10-20%) CHANCES SOUTH
OF THE TN RIVER. DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. MORE DETAILS ABOUT LOCAL
IMPACTS BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR LOOKS TO MOVE ON SHORE NEAR LOUISIANA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSH ENE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OF MODEL GUIDANCE,
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE ACTUAL LOW WELL
SOUTH OF US, WITH THE BULK OF IT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AL. AS
SUCH, OUR IMPACTS FROM THIS TROPICAL LOW WILL BE MUCH MORE
CONDITIONAL, CONTINGENT ON IF WE GET ANY HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT LIFT NORTH. THIS MAKES THE FLOODING AND SEVERE
FORECAST RATHER CHALLENGING.
IF HEAVIER BANDS DO NOT LIFT NORTH, WE MAY NOT GET MUCH RAIN AT
ALL, CERTAINLY NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR FLOODING THREAT. THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PARAGRAPH WILL COVER IF HEAVIER BANDS DO LIFT
NORTH. WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A LOW SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT SUPER SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES, BUT
WITH VERY LOW LCLS AND POTENTIAL CELL INTERACTION, A WEAK TROPICAL
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN WILL HOWEVER BE THE
OVERALL BIGGEST CONCERN. MODELS INDICATE PWATS MAY CLIMB A DECENT
BIT ABOVE 2" PUTTING US WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS
PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR BOTH OHX AND BMX. WITH HIGH MID
AND LOW LEVEL RH, ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH, YET INCONSISTENTLY SHOW ISOLATED BULLSEYES OF 3+ INCHES.
SEEING THIS MUCH RAIN WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON IF HEAVIER TROPICAL
BANDS MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH.
WHAT HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR IS TIMING FOR BOTH THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MORNING MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING RAIN LIFTING
NORTH INTO OUR AREA AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE
WORK DAY. THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN AND NOW LOOKS TO
MOVE IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. CURRENTLY WE ARE MAINTAINING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AT
50-60% FOR FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED AS WE REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW TO
MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS, FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTING ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR FLOODING RISKS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ON SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. THIS
WILL GIVE US A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE RAIN WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
(5-15%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN PLACE, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES SOUTH
OF THE TN RIVER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL DRY OUT ENOUGH TO GET ANY POSTPONED YARD
WORK DONE. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DRIER FORECAST WON'T LAST LONG. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START BACK UP ON FATHER'S DAY/SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES SLIDING
THROUGH AND A SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH
VALLEY. LOOK FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS AROUND 70
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
CEILINGS WILL DRIFT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
AS BANDS OF HEAVIER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
PUSH NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER 06Z AS
MUCH LOWER IFR CEILINGS FILTER IN. AROUND 12Z, HEAVIER RAIN LOOKS
TO PUSH NORTH WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND 12 HOURS REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF WIND SHEAR, TIMING OF
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STORMS, AND DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES WILL WORK TO RESOLVE THESE AS BEST AS
POSSIBLE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RAD
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