791
FXUS64 KHUN 181135
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 328 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ARTHUR TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR GUSTY TO
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT SATELLITE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, CONTRIBUTING TO THE MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS LOW STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO BUT
HAS KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED
NORTH AS THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR TRACK ALONG THE LA/MS COAST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL MS/AL, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE JUST
AFTER SUNRISE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS OUTER BANDS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE TRACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT
WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST
24-48 HOURS, PWAT VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 2" (CLIMATOLOGICALLY IN
THE 99TH PERCENTILE) WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND CAN
LEAD TO PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS OR LOCALIZED FLOODING FAIRLY
QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEATED
SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
0.25-0.5" NORTH OF THE TN RIVER TO 0.5-1" ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TN RIVER.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT REMAINS LOW, ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM
AND TRACK INTO THE AREA WILL CARRY THE RISK FOR GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS. WHILE LAPSE RATES AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, LCLS WILL BE
LOW AND HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW.
IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM OUT FAR AHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING
THEY WOULD NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE THIS FAR NORTH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SFC
LOW TRACKS NEAR NE AL. BY THIS TIME, INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LOWER AND SHOULD LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE RISK AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DECAY. WE FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE BIGGER
CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR, BUT ANY
DEVIATIONS NORTH WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLOODING.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR NW AL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY CLEAR TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO
25MPH AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE FORECAST ISN'T DONE AFTER THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR GETS OUT OF
HERE, AS THERE IS A COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
LUCKILY, THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN TRENDING ON THE LATER SIDE,
LETTING THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR SLIP ON BY BEFORE IT ARRIVES
FRIDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
TN VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE, AND PUSH SOUTH OF US
AFTER LUNCH. IT IS UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION IT WILL
DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE DECENT BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE, BUT
INSTABILITY REALLY DECREASES AND MOISTURE CONTENT DECREASES
(DEWPOINTS, PWATS) AS WELL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO
MID 80S, AND LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
WE'LL REALLY SEE SOME DRIER AIR FILTER IN ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING
FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, WE CAN'T FULLY ESCAPE THE
RAIN THOUGH AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH WILL PROVIDE US WITH
LOW CHANCES (20% NE AL/S MID TN - 30% ELSEWHERE) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MAY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
ZONAL FLOW WILL LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE FLOW
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE A BIT BY
MIDWEEK, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING HOLD. AT THE SURFACE, A REMNANT
BOUNDARY WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY, WITH FROPA THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR MIDWEEK.
OVERALL, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT WITH HIGHER
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY (40-80%) AND LOWER CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY (20-40%). WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED DUE
TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAINLY BETWEEN 5-6.5 DEGC/KM. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER,
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.7-2.1 INCHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THESE STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING (ESPECIALLY WITH SATURATED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS). MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE SUMMERTIME-LIKE PATTERN THEN SETTING UP
(DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS).
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT, LOWS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THANKS TO FROPA AND DECREASING MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. S TO SW WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF RAIN BEGINS EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page