537
FXUS64 KHUN 181941
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
241 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 241 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW CHANCES
OF FLOODING EXIST IN PRIMARILY NORTHEAST ALABAMA WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH IN STRONGER STORMS.
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AS ANTICIPATED, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR AND
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS HAVE PRIMARILY REMAINED SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
THE HIGHEST WIND GUST THUS FAR WAS 35 KTS MEASURED AT THE
HUNTSVILLE AIRPORT WITH A MORNING BAND OF PRECIPITATION. MEASURED
RAINFALL RATES PEAKED AT 1.5"/HR IN NORTHEAST AL. ADDITIONAL BANDS
OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY PUSH INTO NORTHEAST AL AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THESE ARE
ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRAVERSE NORTHWARD, AS HAVE ALL THE
OTHER STORMS THAT ENTERED THE TN VALLEY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1-2" ARE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED BULLSEYES UP TO 3"
IF TRAINING OF STORMS OCCURS.
OTHERWISE, THESE AREAS OF STORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MOST COVERAGE IN NORTHERN ALABAMA ENDING SHORTLY NEAR
OR AFTER SUNSET. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INITIATION, OR SUPPRESS ONGOING
STORMS, WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM TENNESSEE. WINDS
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND IF THERE ARE PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES,
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOMORROW THROUGH THE
REGION. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW (10-20%) OVER THE TN VALLEY
WITH THIS FRONT, BUT INCREASE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL. SHOULD THE FRONT STRUGGLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF US,
A MORE LIKELY CASE SHOULD ARTHUR'S REMNANTS TRACK FARTHER NORTH,
THEN FRIDAY'S RAIN CHANCES WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE MORE PLEASANT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY, BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. THE BOUNDARY IS PICKED UP BY A LEE
CYCLONE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING 30-40% RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AL
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
ZONAL FLOW WILL LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE FLOW
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE A BIT BY
MIDWEEK, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING HOLD. AT THE SURFACE, A REMNANT
BOUNDARY WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY, WITH FROPA THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR MIDWEEK.
OVERALL, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT WITH HIGHER
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY (40-80%) AND LOWER CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY (20-40%). WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED DUE
TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAINLY BETWEEN 5-6.5 DEGC/KM. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER,
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.7-2.1 INCHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THESE STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING (ESPECIALLY WITH SATURATED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS). MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE SUMMERTIME-LIKE PATTERN THEN SETTING UP
(DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS).
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT, LOWS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THANKS TO FROPA AND DECREASING MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL FLUCTUATE AT BOTH TERMINALS AS PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA.
HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL
AIRPORT IMPACTS CAPTURED IN THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 18-22Z. HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
LIGHTNING AND WINDS GUSTS OF 25+ MPH AMONG STRONGEST STORMS. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO 00Z, RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BEGIN TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST, WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE BY 06Z. UNFORTUNATELY, MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING TOMORROW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page