670
FXUS64 KHUN 191055
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
555 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- THERE IS A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED
SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER TOMORROW.
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AT THIS HOUR. A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
EDGE FURTHER SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF BEDFORD
AND COFFEE COUNTY IN TENNESSEE. SOME VERY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOORE AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
TENNESSEE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
THE REMNANTS OF TC ARTHUR ARE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH, MOST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY (LOW CHANCE) AROUND
DAYBREAK PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WHEN YOU
WAKE UP TODAY SHOULD START OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY. HOWEVER, SHEAR LOOKS TOO WEAK (20-25 KNOTS) FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (THOUGH SOME SBCAPE OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE) OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE CENTER OF A MODIFIED CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY, FORCING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR CWFA AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND ALLOWING BOTH AIR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE L-M
60S. THUS, WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS (AFTER ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER), WITH PATCHY FOG IN A
FEW OF OUR NORMALLY FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS. DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST AIRMASS BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTHWARD, BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA (WHERE POPS ARE IN THE 20-30% RANGE). AS THE LEE LOW
BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
LOW-LEVEL SSE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S REGION-WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES, POPS REMAIN RATHER LOW AND IN
THE 10-20% RANGE.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE FURTHER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN OH (IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH). THIS CONFIGURATION WILL INDUCE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING
BACK INTO THE 1.8-2" RANGE. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
FROM SOUTHERN MS NORTHEASTWARD INTO TN/KY (PERHAPS AIDED BY AN MCV
FROM A NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE MO VALLEY), BUT ALTHOUGH RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES, CELLS WILL
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN THIS REGIME, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT CONCERN FOR FLOODING. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGHER CAPE AND
STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW, STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MORE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL EXHIBIT A
WEAKENING TREND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE MCS (PERHAPS INCLUDING MULTIPLE
BOWING SEGMENTS) MAY EVOLVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN IL. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
SUNRISE ON MONDAY, AT WHICH POINT THE WSW LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE
PEAKING IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE. FORTUNATELY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, BUT IF THIS DOES NOT MATERIALIZE, THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD CARRY A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
INSTABILITY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE COMBINATION
OF HIGH CAPE AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT WOULD
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THERE ARE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD FRONT (AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
IN ITS WAKE) WILL PUSH BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE (HIGHEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON). FORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS AS IF THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIGHTER LOW/MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR (REDUCING THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION). HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN STEEP IN THE
WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, AND HIGH CAPE MAY STILL YIELD A RISK
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ON A DAILY BASIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M 80S AND LOWS IN THE M-U 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CIGS PREDOMINANTLY BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH
TERMINALS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS, SHRA, OR MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD ON AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 17 OR 18Z, BEFORE BECOMING VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER IN THE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW
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