431
FXUS64 KHUN 200952
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
452 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 954 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL DEPEND
ON THE LOCATION OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM SAT JUN 20 2026
SOME VIRGA CAN BE SEEN IN AREA RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM WEST/CENTRAL
LOUISIANA NE TO NEAR KGWO IN MISSISSIPPI EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA (AROUND 10,000 FEET AND HIGHER) IS KEEPING FOG AT BAY THIS
MORNING.
STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER INSTABILITY HAS FORM ALONG
IT OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON WHERE THIS CONCENTRATED AREA OF
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING SO FAR. MOST GUIDANCE MOVES THE STRONGER
FORCING WITH THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO THE ESE, SO CURRENT NBM
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH HIGHER POP, EXCEPT NEAR CULLMAN COUNTY
AND INTO COLBERT, FRANKLIN, MORGAN, AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN ALABAMA. IN THOSE LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN
(40-70 PERCENT) AND LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK THOUGH SO NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN SBCAPE THOUGH IN THOSE AREAS
THAT COULD CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG, FREQUENT LIGHTING
AND SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER
NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY (83-86 DEGREES) WHILE FURTHER SOUTH HIGHS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
EXPECT WITH THE BETTER FORCING MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THAT CONVECTION WILL
FALL APART.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM SAT JUN 20 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING CONCERNS AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WPC HAS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON (80-90%) AND REMAIN HIGH INTO TUESDAY
(50-70%), WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST TO BE AROUND
0.75-1.25" DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN/BACKBUILD. ADDITIONALLY, STORM MOTION
WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW (~15 KTS), WHICH COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
A FLASH FLOOD RISK. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO CHECK BACK IN FOR
UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. A THREAT OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ANOTHER THREAT MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SHEAR INCREASES TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM SUBTROPICAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TO OUR NORTH, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH SUBTLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
BROADER TROUGH EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OF 15-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DISTURBANCES PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION EXPECTED TO BE
RETARDED BY A WEAKER SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. A MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED AIRMASS (FEATURING
PWAT VALUES OF 1.8-2" AND CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE) WILL
EXIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS ON TUESDAY THAT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT.
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE
IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (AND INTRUSION OF DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR) WILL
RESIDE, AND THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR AS IF A DEVELOPING LEE
CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT
NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L-M 80S,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M-U 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH
CIGS AROUND 20,000 FEET IN THOSE LOCATIONS. BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE, LOWER CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 7Z AT BOTH TERMINALS IN
THE 850 MB LAYER. THIS AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS. SOME SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KMSL AROUND DAYBREAK INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, SO A PROB30 GROUP
WAS INCLUDED FOR THAT ACTIVITY. SOME MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS COULD
OCCUR WITH THAT ACTIVITY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW
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