527
FXUS64 KHUN 201445
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
945 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE ON MONDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL DEPEND
ON THE LOCATION OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS HELPED TO
LIMIT SUNSHINE/HEATING. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY 18Z, WHICH WILL ALLOW
OUR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE AFTERNOON. A
STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND CULLMAN COUNTY AND LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (10-40%) ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA, NORTHEAST
ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS.
CONVECTION WILL WANE BY LATE THIS EVENING, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING CAN
OCCUR, PATCHY FOG WILL BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ON SUNDAY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL AGAIN BE WEDGED BETWEEN A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, MID SOUTH, AND OZARKS. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE FOR FATHER'S DAY AND POTENTIALLY
SOME ELEVATED HEAT CONCERNS AS HIGHS RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S -- WITH A FEW
SPOTS EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD ENSURE THEY OBSERVE COMMON SENSE, HEAT SAFETY PRACTICES AND
RULES. ONCE AGAIN, CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION,
GENERATING LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
A LINE/BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD, MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHEAR PROFILE AND
THERMODYNAMICS DO FAVOR SOME ORGANIZED, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT -- ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE QUITE SLOW,
WHICH MAY FAVOR BACKBUILDING AND SUBSEQUENTLY A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WPC HAS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY. AGAIN, IT WILL BE IMPORTANT
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAKE SURE
THEY HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND STALL MONDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO END BY THE LATE EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM SUBTROPICAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TO OUR NORTH, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH SUBTLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
BROADER TROUGH EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OF 15-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DISTURBANCES PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION EXPECTED TO BE
RETARDED BY A WEAKER SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. A MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED AIRMASS (FEATURING
PWAT VALUES OF 1.8-2" AND CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE) WILL
EXIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS ON TUESDAY THAT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT.
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE
IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (AND INTRUSION OF DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR) WILL
RESIDE, AND THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR AS IF A DEVELOPING LEE
CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT
NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L-M 80S,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M-U 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
MAINLY VIRGA STILL OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME ISOLATED LIGHT DRIZZLE OR RAIN IS
SHOWING UP IN AN OBSERVATION OR TWO, BUT EXPECT VIRGA TO CONTINUE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MORE. THUS, AT KMSL ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30
FOR SHRA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT -SHRA TO BECOME PREDOMINANT AT KMSL
AFTER 15Z. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS LATE THIS MORNING, EXPECT -TSRA
TO DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KMSL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
OF MORE PREDOMINANT -SHRA AND -TSRA AT KHSV, ONLY INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT THAT TERMINAL. THIS MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THAT FAR
EAST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE EARLIER AT KHSV (~ 21/00Z)
AND LATER AT KMSL (21/04Z). LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS IN MODELS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW
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