967
FXUS64 KHUN 210259
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
959 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
- MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY- PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
STORMS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE ON MONDAY, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES (40% OR LESS) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
DESPITE NOT SEEING WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY, AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COEXISTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE COULD BE ISSUED
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IF FOG DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY EXCEEDS
EXPECTATIONS. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS A
SFC FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA AND INTO THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL, LINGERING JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES (30% OR
LESS) OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE AND RAIN
CHANCES HAVE DECREASED IN RECENT MODEL TRENDS, HOWEVER, CAMS
INDICATE A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S
(REACHING 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS) ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
ABIDE BY HEAT SAFETY BY DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER AND SEEKING SHADE
WHEN ABLE TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (30-50%)
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL FORCE HIGH CHANCES
(70-90%) OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWATS REACHING AROUND 1.9-2.2", WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE PER BMX AND OHX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THEREFORE,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ADDITIONALLY,
CORFIDI UPSHEAR VALUES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING STORMS, INCREASING
THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT (RISK LEVEL 2 OF 4) OUTLOOK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS BOTH INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BE SURE TO HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS MONDAY AS MULTIPLE THREATS ARE ON
THE TABLE. ANOTHER HEAT THREAT ALSO EXISTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100, HOWEVER, WE WILL BE
MONITORING HOW THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER AFFECTS
THESE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. WHILE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT, MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE A LOW FLOODING THREAT IN NW AL,
WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS US OUTLOOKED IN
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WE
ENCOURAGE EVERYONE WITH PLANS EARLY IN THE WEEK TO REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE AND CHECK BACK IN FOR UPDATES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY), OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A LIGHT
(10-20 KNOT) NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE (INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS) WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AS A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD
LIGHT SSW RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD
OFF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH, BUT DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR APPEAR TOO
WEAK TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS, A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FEATURING PWAT VALUES OF 1.6-1.8" AND CAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD RESULT IN A RISK FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. WITH OUR REGION LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND DRYING PROFILES, WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH WITH A LINGERING FRONT/CONVERGENCE AXIS LIKELY TO
LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
CERTAINLY BE NON-ZERO). HIGHS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM FROM THE L-M
80S INTO THE M-U 80S BY SATURDAY, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS RISE FROM THE M-U
60S INTO THE U60S-L70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, LOWERED
CEILINGS (AND POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION) WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE (PROB30 GROUP) OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SUBSEQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...HC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page