753
FXUS64 KHUN 210819
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2026
- LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO BETWEEN
30-70% AFTER MIDNIGHT.
- MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY- PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
STORMS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE ON MONDAY, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES (40% OR LESS) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS HELPED LIMIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS FROM THE MUSCLE SHOALS AREA EAST ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER INTO WESTERN MADISON COUNTY. IN THOSE AREAS, FOG FORMATION
(SOME LOCALLY DENSE) WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. HOWEVER, AROUND 5 OR 6 AM, MODELS HINT THAT EVEN THESE
AREAS WILL FILL IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON RAIN OR STORMS FORMING OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY. THEY CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION ALONG
A MORE DISTINCT AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
EXTENDING INTO SE GEORGIA. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER BREAK UP
TOWARDS NOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY HUMID PUSHING HEAT INDEX
VALUES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN A FEW LOCATIONS, SO IF
WORKING OUTSIDE GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF BREAKS AND STAY HYDRATED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING
(30-70%) AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN. SIMULTANEOUSLY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT STEMMING
FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL FORCE
HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS REACHING AROUND 1.9-2.2", WHICH IS ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX AND OHX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
THEREFORE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
ADDITIONALLY, CORFIDI UPSHEAR VALUES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING STORMS, INCREASING
THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT (RISK LEVEL 2 OF 4) OUTLOOK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS BOTH INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BE SURE TO HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS MONDAY AS MULTIPLE THREATS ARE ON
THE TABLE. ANOTHER HEAT THREAT ALSO EXISTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100, HOWEVER, WE WILL BE
MONITORING HOW THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER AFFECTS
THESE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. WHILE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT, MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE A LOW FLOODING THREAT IN NW AL,
WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS US OUTLOOKED IN
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WE
ENCOURAGE EVERYONE WITH PLANS EARLY IN THE WEEK TO REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE AND CHECK BACK IN FOR UPDATES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY), OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A LIGHT
(10-20 KNOT) NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE (INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS) WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AS A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD
LIGHT SSW RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD
OFF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH, BUT DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR APPEAR TOO
WEAK TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS, A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FEATURING PWAT VALUES OF 1.6-1.8" AND CAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD RESULT IN A RISK FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. WITH OUR REGION LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND DRYING PROFILES, WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH WITH A LINGERING FRONT/CONVERGENCE AXIS LIKELY TO
LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
CERTAINLY BE NON-ZERO). HIGHS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM FROM THE L-M
80S INTO THE M-U 80S BY SATURDAY, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS RISE FROM THE M-U
60S INTO THE U60S-L70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. CLEAR
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AS WELL. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH 13Z OR 14Z. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY 1 DEGREE OR LESS, SO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER 5Z OR 6Z. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF LOW CLOUD COVER
WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BELIEVE
BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z WE WILL START TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP BEFORE
CLOUD COVER CAN BUILD IN. DUE TO THE QUESTION OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT,
KEPT DROPS IN VISIBILITY SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE. AT KMSL, DROPPED
VSBYS TO 5SM BY 8Z AND INCLUDED A TEMPO BETWEEN 9Z AND 13Z WITH
IFR VSBYS DOWN TO 2 SM. FURTHER EAST AT KHSV, CLOUD COVER MAY
DEVELOP LATER, THUS DROPPED VSBYS A BIT LOWER (AFTER 8Z DROPPED
VSBY TO 3SM AND INCLUDED A TEMPO BETWEEN 9Z AND 13Z FOR LOWER IFR
VSBY DOWN TO 1 SM). VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 13Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW
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