022
FXUS64 KHUN 211455
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WITH SUNRISE, FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE. ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY BY MIDDAY. THE
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY HEAT UP
WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S, DUE TO CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW. AS SUCH, HEAT INDICES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. MAKE SURE TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS IF SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS.
MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAIN FOCAL POINT BEING A BOUNDARY THAT LOOKS TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
(20-30%) WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SW AREAS THAT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER COVERAGE OF GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING MCS THAT
IS DISCUSSED BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL
ALLOW SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY,
THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES ON MONDAY. EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN MCS
WILL BE ONGOING TO OUR NW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE.
THROUGH THE MORNING THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SE AND MOVE THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE MAIN MCS LOOKS TO ENTER NW AL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE AND MOVE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY (+1000 J/KG) WILL
BE PRESENT. PAIRED WITH AN OKAY AMOUNT OF BULK SHEAR (25-35 KTS),
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SPC WITH THE WHOLE AREA BEING UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (1/5).
UNFORTUNATELY OUR TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH
HIGH DEW POINTS AND PWATS, MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN A CONCERN.
LOW CORFIDI UP SHEAR VALUES RAISE CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. AS SUCH, WPC HAS PLACE
MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE MCS LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
PUSH IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR, YET WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS, LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST, ALL
STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION
THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE
MAIN CONCERN. WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM FORECAST, MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO GET WARNINGS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY), OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A LIGHT
(10-20 KNOT) NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE (INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS) WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AS A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD
LIGHT SSW RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD
OFF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH, BUT DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR APPEAR TOO
WEAK TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS, A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FEATURING PWAT VALUES OF 1.6-1.8" AND CAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD RESULT IN A RISK FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. WITH OUR REGION LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND DRYING PROFILES, WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH WITH A LINGERING FRONT/CONVERGENCE AXIS LIKELY TO
LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
CERTAINLY BE NON-ZERO). HIGHS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM FROM THE L-M
80S INTO THE M-U 80S BY SATURDAY, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS RISE FROM THE M-U
60S INTO THE U60S-L70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THICKER CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE OVER KMSL SINCE VSBYS IMPROVED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 14Z. LOWER VSBYS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE
EXPECTED AT KHSV THROUGH 14Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS WITH A TEMPO
FOR 3/4SM WERE INCLUDED AT THAT TERMINAL. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AND
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
BOTH TERMINALS BY 16Z OR 17Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME -SHRA COULD
IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL AROUND 5Z OR 6Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
ONLY A PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW
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