448
FXUS64 KHUN 221200
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 322 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT WILL BE HIGHEST (85-95%) FROM LATE MONDAY
MORNING-EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
- CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR BOTH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING AND STRONG-SEVERE STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. EXPECT THIS MAIN THREAT PERIOD FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING TO BE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 9 PM.
- AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE TO 40-60% FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. A MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT MAY REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (850 MB AND LOWER) CONTINUES TO SETUP
NORTHWEST OF THE AL/TN BORDER THIS MORNING. STRONGER SHEAR AND
FORCING ALOFT IS CONCENTRATED FURTHER NORTH THOUGH CLOSER TO A
WEAK SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA/ILLINOIS. THIS SHOULD KEEP STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA IN NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO AREAS NEAR
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A WEAK DECAYING MCS THAT IS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST FROM NE ARKANSAS TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A NORTH TO
SOUTH LINE AHEAD OF THIS IN WESTERN TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, MEAN FLOW
IN MOST GUIDANCE IS MORE ENE TO NE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CENTERED MORE OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TENNESSEE THAN FURTHER SOUTH. THUS, EXPECT MOST
OF THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MORE SO IN TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY THAN FURTHER SOUTH. LIKELY NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH SEE
SOME RAINFALL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED STORMS.
HOWEVER, BUT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE AND FORECAST BY MODELS
THIS MORNING, NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTING LATER THIS MORNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THOUGH.
AS INSTABILITY REALLY INCREASES TOWARDS 1 PM AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE AREA. SHEAR
INCREASES IN MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING NORTHERN
ALABAMA IN THE EVENING HOURS, SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE AREA. WITH
MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE
AREA, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, MAINLY BETWEEN
1 PM AND 9 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THERE WILL
BE JUST ENOUGH HELICITY THAT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A FLASH FLOODING THREAT COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
HIGH PWATS IN PLACE (OVER 2.0 INCHES). THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP THE
MOST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST GUIDANCE HAS THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA AROUND 10 PM OR VERY SHORT AFTERWARDS. THIS
SHOULD PUSH THE BETTER SHEAR AND CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING RAINFALL AND MAYBE A FEW SUB-SEVERE STORMS
COULD HOLD ON JUST PAST MIDNIGHT TOWARDS CULLMAN COUNTY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A
DRIER, BUT HIGHLY MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
REGION, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR
OUR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY VERY WELL EXIST REGION-WIDE, BUT WITH NORMAL
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY, WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW-MEDIUM POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX AND WEAK AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS THIS OCCURS, WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SW-TO-NE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORTUNATELY, DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER (COMPARED TO TOMORROW), REDUCING THE
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. REGARDING TEMPERATURES,
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE L-M 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE M-U 60S (L-M 60S ON TUESDAY NIGHT) .
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WE CONTINUE IN A GENERALLY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH AT LEAST LOW CHANCES (30%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE TN VALLEY
WILL REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORECAST
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO MEDIUM (40-60%) BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT
BASED ON PLACEMENT/TRACK OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE,
HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND 1.7-1.8" (JUST BELOW 90TH
PERCENTILE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PER BMX). THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST IN
AREAS WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED
IN A MARGINAL (RISK LEVEL 1 OF 4) OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. HEAT WILL BE
A CONCERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100 DEGREES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
INTERESTS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BE SURE TO CHECK BACK IN
FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE WITH -SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z AT KMSL AND 19Z AT
KHSV. A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA WAS INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM
13Z THROUGH 17Z, WHEN MVFR VSBY'S COULD OCCUR WITH -TSRA. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD -TSRA TO IMPACT KMSL AROUND 18Z AND KHSV 19Z. A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER TSRA WITH IFR (POSSIBLY LOWER) VSBYS OR CIGS
COULD OCCUR WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM 19Z-23Z AT KMSL AND 20Z-24Z AT
KHSV AT TIMES. A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO -TSRA COULD HOLD ON AT KMSL THROUGH 2Z AND 3Z AT
KHSV. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...KTW
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