194
FXUS64 KHUN 222321
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1105 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR BOTH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING AND STRONG-SEVERE STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS
MAIN THREAT PERIOD FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING TO BE
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 11 PM.
- AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE TO 40-60% FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE BIGGEST UPDATE TO TODAY'S FORECAST IS THE EARLIER ISSUANCE OF
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES UNTIL 7PM
TONIGHT. THE EDGE OF THE MCV IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AL, SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND INTO NE AL. STORMS SO FAR HAVE
PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH
AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SEGMENTS IN
THE LINE THAT HAVE SHOWN ROTATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
CELL MERGERS. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AS HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SRH TO BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THUS, THE LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM
BOWING SEGMENTS. WITH STORMS MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP, FLOODING HAS
NOT BEEN AS MUCH OF A CONCERN SO FAR, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR TRAINING STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS
AFTERNOON AND IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING IS
ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION, TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
PERSISTENT RAINFALL FROM A COLD POOL BOUNDARY HAS STAYED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING, PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BATCHES OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS IS GOOD FOR OUR AL COUNTIES,
HOWEVER NOT SO MUCH FOR LINCOLN AND MOORE CO IN TN. STARTING OFF
ON A DRIER NOTE IN MOST PLACES WILL HELP WITH HYDRO CONCERNS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, WE WILL KEEP A KEEN EYE RAINFALL RATES
TODAY, AND IF ANY BACKBUILDING OCCURS TO INCREASING FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE BOARD.
ON THE HEELS OF THIS BATCH OF RAINFALL, THERE IS A MCV THAT HAS
DEVELOPED IN AR AND SLIDING EASTWARD. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
MCV WILL REACH THE MS/AL BORDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ON TOP
OF THIS, THERE IS A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OF THE MCV THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. OUR COUNTIES HAVEN'T BEEN WORKED
OVER THIS MORNING AND AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, CAPE VALUES WILL BE
1-2,000 J/KG, PWATS 2.0-2.2" (99TH PERCENTILE), BULK SHEAR UP TO
30KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND A LLJ UP TO 50KTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS, AND A TORNADO THREAT. WILL
NOTE THE TORNADO THREAT IS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS IS NOTED IN SPC'S LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AS
WELL. WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LEVEL 2/5),
AND A SLIGHT RISK ERO. STRONG TO SEVERE TIMING LOOKS TO BE JUST A
TAD SLOWER, MOVING INTO NW AL 2-4PM AND MOVING OUT OF NE AL
10-11PM.
ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH, PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE TN VALLEY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY, BUT NOT SURE ON EXACTLY HOW
FAR IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BEFORE SLOWING DOWN. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT
ON TUESDAY, BUT IT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF US. IF IT MAKES IT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH, THERE WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND A SLOW EROSION OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (15-30%) AS A
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY, CREATING LOW TO MEDIUM
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES (30-60%). DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WE CONTINUE IN A GENERALLY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH AT LEAST LOW CHANCES (30%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE TN VALLEY
WILL REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORECAST
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO MEDIUM (40-60%) BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT
BASED ON PLACEMENT/TRACK OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE,
HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND 1.7-1.8" (JUST BELOW 90TH
PERCENTILE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PER BMX). THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST IN
AREAS WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED
IN A MARGINAL (RISK LEVEL 1 OF 4) OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. HEAT WILL BE
A CONCERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100 DEGREES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
INTERESTS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BE SURE TO CHECK BACK IN
FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF THE STORMS. STILL HAVE A TEMPO THROUGH
02-03Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A PULSE TSRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THIS WINDOW. THROUGH 05-06Z, ADDITIONAL -SHRA MAY REDEVELOP
AS CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. HOWEVER, WOULD EXPECT
PRECIPIATION TO TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG REDEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN BREAK UP AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP.24
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