132
FXUS64 KHUN 230246
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
946 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 939 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE TO 40-60% FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED HEAT CONCERNS WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RISE INTO THE 95 TO 103 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER, A BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
WANED, WITH JUST A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS,
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID-
MORNING AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING, IT SHOULD END UP BEING A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT,
WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT, WITH POPS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10%
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
WE REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES CLIP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BRINGING LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL CREATE MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST AND FOLLOW COMMON SENSE HEAT SAFETY PRACTICES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS HEAT. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF, A WARMING PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (WITH SOME
SPOTS IN THE MID 90S ON MONDAY). THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ~5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 103 DEGREES. WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING HEAT INDEX VALUES
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY, AS WE NEAR CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. NWS
HEATRISK HIGHLIGHTS THE AREA IN A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK, WHICH
MEANS HEAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT (ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION) AS WELL AS SOME HEALTH
SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, BE
SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY SUCH AS STAYING HYDRATED AND SEEKING
SHADE WHEN OUTDOORS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF THE STORMS. STILL HAVE A TEMPO THROUGH
02-03Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A PULSE TSRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THIS WINDOW. THROUGH 05-06Z, ADDITIONAL -SHRA MAY REDEVELOP
AS CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. HOWEVER, WOULD EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG REDEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN BREAK UP AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP
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