267
FXUS64 KHUN 250851
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
351 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK
DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 TO 109 DEGREES
EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO KEEP RAIN
AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF NW ALABAMA. DESPITE
CALM WINDS IN MOST AREAS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA, SOME THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND SOME LIFT ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
SE THROUGH NW FLOW IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG FROM FORMING. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA AND TOWARDS CULLMAN
COUNTY THROUGH 15Z.
SO, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE COVERAGE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT THERE. FURTHER EAST, WOULD EXPECT MORE CLEARING AROUND
DAYBREAK, CALM WINDS, AND LESS MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IN
THEORY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WHEN YOU WAKE UP THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S PRIMARILY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT LOW CHANCES (15-30%) OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY IN NW ALABAMA AND
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PRODUCED BY
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST LATER TODAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHEAR IS NON-
EXISTENT AND SBCAPE WILL BE LIMITED OVERALL. THUS, JUST EXPECTING
A FEW STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTING, BUT MAINLY JUST
RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A BIT
HIGHER TODAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
WE WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY, WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS TEXAS BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. A COUPLE OF STORM COMPLEXES MAY TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY (MID-MISSISSIPPI,
OHIO VALLEY, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS). HOWEVER, OTHER THAN SOME
CLOUD COVER (AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES), THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DEVOID
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT
THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATE THIS WEEK. AMPLE SUNSHINE,
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS (WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES). THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD OBSERVE COMMON SENSE HEAT SAFETY PRACTICES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A VERY WARM, HUMID AIR MASS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL CREATE MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEAT IMPACTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH,
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
EACH DAY (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S (WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY). THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-109 DEGREES EACH DAY. HEAT
ADVISORY PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY FACTORING THE VERY LIMITED RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT (LOWS
IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S).
NWS HEAT RISK VALUES HIGHLIGHT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN
MAJOR RISK FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, NWS
HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS AN EXTREME RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THESE MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISKS, MEAN THAT THIS HEAT WILL
AFFECT EVERYONE, ESPECIALLY THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION. HEALTH SYSTEMS, INDUSTRIES, AND
INFRASTRUCTURE MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE HEATWAVE BUILDS WITH NO RELIEF OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT.
IF YOU HAVE PLANS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, IT IS
ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY SUCH AS STAYING
HYDRATED AND MOVING/REMAINING INDOORS IN AIR CONDITIONING DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH
SOME PASSING VERY THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER. CALM WINDS OR VERY LIGHT
WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT BOTH TERMINALS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS ARE 2 OR 3 DEGREES. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY AND MOST GUIDANCE FORECAST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST ABOVE 1000 MB. THE SETUP FOR SOME FOG LOOKS TO BE A TAD
BETTER AT KMSL BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 12Z AT KMSL. BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z, SOME FORCING ALOFT MAY HELP TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER DISSIPATING
ANY FOG. THUS, INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL FOR 4SM VSBYS BETWEEN
8Z AND 12Z. A WINDOW FOR SIMILAR VSBYS DROPS DUE TO FOG MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED AT KHSV VIA AN AMENDMENT LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z. VERY LOW 15-25% CHANCES
OF SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AFTER 15Z WITH THE MENTIONED EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORCING MOVING INTO WESTERN CENTRAL AL IN THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
HOWEVER, FOR NOW, LEAVING THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
JULY 2-4. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE ABOVE THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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