157
FXUS64 KHUN 261550
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1050 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- ON SATURDAY, A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEASTERN AL THAT HAVE A LOW THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
- THE FIRST BIG HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER MOVES IN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. HEATRISK VALUES OF MAJOR
AND EXTREME (LEVELS 3 AND 4 OUT OF 4) INDICATE IMPACTFUL HEAT
ALL WEEK, COUPLED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-109 F.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THIS MORNING, A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING EASTWARD
THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL PRODUCING A WEAKENING BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL AREAS OF
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STRONGER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MOST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. ANY CONVECTION WE
SEE TODAY, IF ANY, WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS CAPABLE
OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPS TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DESPITE CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AS A FEW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS RIPPLE THROUGH THE PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW, WE SHOULD COOL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST
NIGHT WHERE LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 60S FOR AT LEAST A WEEK, IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE WETTER PATTERN HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL OVERSPREAD A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM AND MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. THE STRONGER
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE FOR NORTHEASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN,
ALLOWING FOR A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
NORTHEAST OF THE TN VALLEY, BUT A 30-60% RAIN CHANCE EXISTS FOR
ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE TN RIVER, WHICH MAY PUT A DAMPER ON ANY
OUTDOOR WEEKEND PLANS.
SUNDAY BEGINS THE PIVOT WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD, BRINGING
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (66 FOR BOTH
HSV AND MSL). HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH A MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) AND HEAT INDICES OF
100-105 F.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AS A QUICK UPDATE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
A LITTLE "DIRTIER" WITH COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. THIS PRESENTS A TRICKY SCENARIO FOR HEAT
PRODUCTS, AS THOSE WHO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY NOT REACH
CRITERIA FOR HEAT PRODUCTS, BUT THE MANY MORE WHO DO NOT SEE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL
HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT EVENT WITH
DAILY TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE MID/UPR 90S EACH DAY AMID
ONGOING HIGH DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY. ADDING TO THIS, INSOLATION WILL
TEND TO BE HIGH EACH DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ONLY EXACERBATING THE
SITUATION. HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. FOR THOSE OF YOU WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR WORK NEXT
WEEK, PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 3.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE
THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
JULY 4. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE ABOVE THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...HC
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