540
FXUS64 KHUN 261940
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- ON SATURDAY, A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEASTERN AL THAT HAVE A LOW THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
- THE FIRST BIG HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER MOVES IN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. HEATRISK VALUES OF MAJOR
AND EXTREME (LEVELS 3 AND 4 OUT OF 4) INDICATE IMPACTFUL HEAT
ALL WEEK, COUPLED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-109 F.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
INTERESTING SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL CU
FIELD THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE TN VALLEY IS PARTIALLY COVERED BY
SOME BILLOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INDICATES A
SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER COVERED BY A VERY STABLE LAYER, TELLING A
VERY DIFFERENT STORY THAN MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW NO INVERSIONS
OR STABLE LAYERS. OUR WINDOW FOR PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLOSE
AFTER ABOUT 6-7 PM, AND I FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT WE WOULD ONLY
GET ONE OR TWO, AT MOST, THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED THE UPPER 80S AND A FEW MAY STRETCH PAST 90 AROUND 4 PM,
BUT OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. ENJOY
THE LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S BEFORE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S MOVE IN AND CREATE A HOT AND HUMID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE WETTER PATTERN HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL OVERSPREAD A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM AND MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. THE STRONGER
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE FOR NORTHEASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN,
ALLOWING FOR A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
NORTHEAST OF THE TN VALLEY, BUT A 30-60% RAIN CHANCE EXISTS FOR
ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE TN RIVER, WHICH MAY PUT A DAMPER ON ANY
OUTDOOR WEEKEND PLANS.
SUNDAY BEGINS THE PIVOT WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD, BRINGING
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (66 FOR BOTH
HSV AND MSL). HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH A MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) AND HEAT INDICES OF
100-105 F.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AS A QUICK UPDATE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
A LITTLE "DIRTIER" WITH COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. THIS PRESENTS A TRICKY SCENARIO FOR HEAT
PRODUCTS, AS THOSE WHO SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY NOT REACH
CRITERIA FOR HEAT PRODUCTS, BUT THE MANY MORE WHO DO NOT SEE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL
HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT EVENT WITH
DAILY TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE MID/UPR 90S EACH DAY AMID
ONGOING HIGH DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY. ADDING TO THIS, INSOLATION WILL
TEND TO BE HIGH EACH DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ONLY EXACERBATING THE
SITUATION. HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. FOR THOSE OF YOU WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR WORK NEXT
WEEK, PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPARSE SHOWER
COVERAGE IS HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS MAY APPROACH 10 KTS AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, AND THEN APPROACH 10 KTS AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 3.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE
THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
JULY 4. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE ABOVE THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page