877
FXUS64 KHUN 272252
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
552 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 927 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST AL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A LOW
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- A HEAT WAVE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH A
HEAT RISK VALUE OF 3 OUT OF 4 (MAJOR CATEGORY) FOR MOST AREAS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
CONVECTION THAT FLARED UP OVER NORTHEAST AL HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO
NORTH GA. THERE MAY BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE OF CELLS
OVER NORTH AL AS THE CUMULUS SEEMS TO BE SUPPRESSED AT THE MOMENT.
JUST TO OUR NORTH, THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN MIDDLE
TN. MEANWHILE, THE MCV OVER SOUTHEAST MO WAS AIDING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWEST KY. THIS
WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE AIRMASS
IS VERY UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHERN TN INTO NORTH AL AND MS WITH SB
CAPE VALUES OF 3-4K J/KG. A MAJORITY OF THE CAMS MAINTAIN THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SHEAR VECTORS MAY FAVOR A MORE SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT LATER TONIGHT. ALSO, THERE ARE CAMS THAT SUGGEST A FEW
MORE STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER SOUTHERN TN OR FAR NORTH AL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK THAT CLIPS OUR
SOUTHERN TN COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST
FROM THAT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING CONVECTION IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN TN COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT THE
TAIL END OF A LARGE MCS ADVANCING THROUGH EAST TN INTO FAR
NORTHERN GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDDAY
LEAVING A BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO CENTRAL KY WHICH MAY
TRIGGER NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS
IT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH DEEP LAYER WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IN MIDDLE LEVELS DEVELOPING AS A 5H HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR VALLEY
AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT AT 95 IN THE SHOALS
METRO. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105F AND WBGTS OF 85-88F ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WITH LOWER VALUES EAST OF I-65.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING FURTHER ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN VALLEY AREAS (UPPER 80S
TO ATOP THE HIGHER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU). SIMILAR VALUES OF HEAT
INDEX (100-105F) AND WBGT (85-88F) ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE HEAT RISK
LEVEL WILL REACH LEVEL 3 OF 4 (MAJOR) FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE HEAT RISK
IN OUR SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEB GRAPHICS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PERSISTENT 594DAM
HIGH ALOFT, LEADING TO THE FIRST REAL HEAT WAVE WE HAVE SEEN THIS
YEAR. THIS HIGH WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE OH VALLEY DOWN THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND WILL LIKELY KEEP
HEAT RELATED ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER MULTIPLE DAYS. THE HEAT
THREAT WILL COME FROM THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE 90S (UPPER
90S SOME AFTERNOONS) AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THAT WILL
BRING HEAT INDICES TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE. IN ADDITION,
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE VERY LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY, KEEPING
US IN A MAJOR HEATRISK THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE THE
FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD, LOW (10-30%)
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AND
COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES
MENTIONED ABOVE. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD PRIORITIZE
HEAT SAFETY BY STAYING HYDRATED, WEARING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING,
TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C, USING SUNSCREEN, AND
NEVER LEAVING PEOPLE OR PETS BEHIND IN VEHICLES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SW WINDS
UP TO 10-15KTS AT TIMES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN OR THUNDER AT
EITHER TAF SITE AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON JULY 5.
THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH OR EXCEED 91-94 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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