115
FXUS64 KHUN 290726
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
226 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- A HEAT WAVE WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH A HEAT RISK VALUE OF 3
OUT OF 4 (MAJOR CATEGORY) TO 4 OUT OF 4 (EXTREME CATEGORY).
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE, A DOME OF VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR SITS, EXACERBATING HEAT RISK CONCERNS AGAIN TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROHIBIT ANY CLOUD COVER FROM
DEVELOPING AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW, THIS
WILL ONLY SERVE TO COMPOUND THE HEAT RISK. THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S WILL CREATE DANGEROUS HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
105 TO 109 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH 7 PM
TUESDAY. PLEASE PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TODAY -- STAY HYDRATED, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN
VEHICLES!
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UNFORTUNATELY, CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US. HEAT
INDICES WILL RISE TO THE 100-110 RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND, MAKING FOR A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE DURING A TIME WHERE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS HEIGHTENED. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE TO THE 95-98 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S. WE WILL FEEL NO RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPS
ONLY FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS WEAK AT THIS TIME, A FEW WEAKER IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, PRIMARILY OVER NE
AL WHERE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED LIFT MAY BE REALIZED. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL AT LEAST NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, RIPPLES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
TRAVERSE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FOR THE WEEKEND, FURTHER WEAKENING THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE A BIT MORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
WELL (PWATS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.7-2.0 INCHES). OVERALL, EXPECT A
DIURNAL PATTERN TO EMERGE BY LATE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) EACH DAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, WITH SUCH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL INCREASED BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES THAT MAY DAMPEN THE HEAT A BIT, THESE WILL BE OUR USUAL
BRIEF, SUMMERTIME POP UP THUNDERSTORMS AND NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL
SEE RAIN.
ULTIMATELY, THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AT
LEAST UNTIL INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE, HEAT INDICES
RANGE BETWEEN 100-109 DEGREES. NWS HEATRISK WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
MAJOR TO EXTREME CATEGORIES (LEVELS 3 AND 4 OF 4) WHICH ARE DUE IN
PART TO THE COMPOUNDING HEAT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LASTLY,
FORECAST WBGTS GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 87-90 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE, HEAT PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE WEEK. MAKE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
THE DANGEROUS HEAT! WEAR LIGHT- COLORED, LOOSE- FITTING CLOTHING,
STAY HYDRATED, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF YOU WORK
OUTSIDE OR HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES! LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK - NEVER
LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWEST ALABAMA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON JULY 6. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REACH OR EXCEED 93-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
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