104
FXUS64 KHUN 291711
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- A HEAT WAVE WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH A HEAT RISK VALUE OF 3
OUT OF 4 (MAJOR CATEGORY) TO 4 OUT OF 4 (EXTREME CATEGORY).
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE PROGRESSES FARTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM WERE ALREADY INTO THE UPPER 80S,
INDICATING UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ON THE
TABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, DESPITE A LAYER OF CUMULUS BUILDING IN.
DEW POINTS MAY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70, BUT HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE
WELL INTO THE 100S STARTING BY 11 AM AND CONTINUING UNTIL 8 PM.
WITH SUCH LITTLE RELIEF IN THE HEAT OVERNIGHT, THE HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASE ONLY TO THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED UNDER RIDGING THIS WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE TO NEAR 596 OVER THE TN VALLEY. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT TRIPLE DIGITS,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OPPRESSIVE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PATTERN AND THE HEAT, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ADVERTISE THE
PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS HEAT WAVE.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT HERE IS THAT THE RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD, ALLOWING RIPPLES OF INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
PROGRESS OVER THE TN VALLEY FROM THE EAST. THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED, AND AS IS COMMON FOR THESE TYPES OF
SUMMERTIME PATTERNS, MOST AREAS WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
MELTING LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
VERY IMPRESSIVE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40-50 MPH. FOR NOW, WE AREN'T EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE DOWNBURSTS, BUT THIS WILL BE A PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, RIPPLES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
TRAVERSE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FOR THE WEEKEND, FURTHER WEAKENING THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE A BIT MORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
WELL (PWATS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.7-2.0 INCHES). OVERALL, EXPECT A
DIURNAL PATTERN TO EMERGE BY LATE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) EACH DAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, WITH SUCH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL INCREASED BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES THAT MAY DAMPEN THE HEAT A BIT, THESE WILL BE OUR USUAL
BRIEF, SUMMERTIME POP UP THUNDERSTORMS AND NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL
SEE RAIN.
ULTIMATELY, THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AT
LEAST UNTIL INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE, HEAT INDICES
RANGE BETWEEN 100-109 DEGREES. NWS HEATRISK WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
MAJOR TO EXTREME CATEGORIES (LEVELS 3 AND 4 OF 4) WHICH ARE DUE IN
PART TO THE COMPOUNDING HEAT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LASTLY,
FORECAST WBGTS GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 87-90 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE, HEAT PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE WEEK. MAKE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
THE DANGEROUS HEAT! WEAR LIGHT- COLORED, LOOSE- FITTING CLOTHING,
STAY HYDRATED, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF YOU WORK
OUTSIDE OR HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES! LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK - NEVER
LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWEST ALABAMA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON JULY 6. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REACH OR EXCEED 93-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...30
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