168
FXUS64 KHUN 010451
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN
AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH 7PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES UP TO 114F. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXIST REGION-WIDE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD
COVER AND CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH THESE CONDITIONS, DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE A BIT HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. BUT,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
NEAR BODIES OF WATER. EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARM, MERELY DROPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT BEGIN TO
FLATTEN SLIGHTLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND
DOWN THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVERALL, THE
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 106-114
DEGREES. A MAJOR TO EXTREME (LEVEL 3 AND 4 OF 4) NWS HEATRISK
REMAINS, ALONG WITH WBGTS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THEREFORE, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM
WEDNESDAY. MAKE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE DANGEROUS HEAT!
WEAR LIGHT-COLORED, LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING, STAY HYDRATED, AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF YOU WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES! LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK - NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR
PETS IN VEHICLES!
IN ADDITION, A FEW SUBTLE, UPPER SHORTWAVES LOOK TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%). THESE MAY DAMPEN THE HEAT A BIT, BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THESE WILL SET UP IS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS BECAUSE WE
ARE ANTICIPATING THESE TO BE THE USUAL, SUMMERTIME POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS/DOWNBURSTS. THEREFORE, NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAIN/STORMS, BUT IT IS STILL IMPORTANT TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE.
TAKING A LOOK AT SOME OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAT, IF
MET OR EXCEEDED, WOULD POINT TO HIGHER RISK OF DOWNBURSTS, THERE
ARE MANY SIGNS THAT INDICATE WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE A SEVERE
DOWNBURST DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE
TO 3 KM AROUND 8 DEG C/KM, ALONG WITH A THETA E DIFFERENCE OF AT
LEAST 40K. IN ADDITION, THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE, WITH MOIST
MID LEVELS VIA THE MODEL SOUNDING PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES,
AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 18 G/KG. WITH THESE HOT CONDITIONS,
INSTABILITY WILL BE ABUNDANT AS WELL. DCAPE VALUES LOOK TO REACH
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MLCAPE GREATER THAN 4000 J/KG WHEN LOOKING
AT RAP SOUNDINGS. LASTLY, WINDEX (AN INDEX THAT COULD INDICATE
HOW STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS COULD BE) VALUES SHOWN BY GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 65-80 KNOTS OR SO. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, THE
THRESHOLDS FOR EACH OF THESE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
DOWNBURSTS ARE MET AND/OR EXCEEDED. THIS COINCIDES WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FOR MUCH OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
ULTIMATELY, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
DOWNBURSTS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF DOWNPOURS,
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREATS. STAY WEATHER
AWARE AND HAVE A SAFE PLACE TO GO IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR
AREA!
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER PATTERN (UPPER RIDGE) WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND FURTHER FLATTEN ON FRIDAY. RIPPLES OF SUBTLE UPPER
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS DOWN INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
PERSIST. THEREFORE, HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT PERHAPS NOT QUITE TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING LEVEL (BUT
HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL). HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL CONTINUE
(WITH LOWS IN THE 70S), WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-110 DEGREE
RANGE. NWS HEATRISK REMAINS IN THE MAJOR TO EXTREME CATEGORIES AND
FORECAST WBGTS CONTINUE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. THEREFORE, WHILE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS IS EXTENDED
FURTHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY
AND STAY WEATHER AWARE IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES!
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECTING THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH NO RAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS DIURNAL PATTERN, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE THE NORM THROUGH LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION, THE DOWNBURST RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THURSDAY, AS THE
PARAMETERS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN
VALUE. THIS COINCIDES WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THESE DOWNBURST PARAMETER VALUES
DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED RISK, JUST
PERHAPS NOT FOR HIGH-END DOWNBURSTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
OVERALL, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
DOWNBURSTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, AND SOME SMALL HAIL ALSO THREATS. STAY WEATHER AWARE!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT, MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.
WE HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN THE THICK OF THE HEATWAVE THIS WEEK BUT
LET'S CONTINUE TO REVIEW HEAT SAFETY: THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND YOU
NEED TO ENSURE THAT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY, FRIENDS, AND PETS ARE
STAYING SAFE FROM THE HEAT. KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT ILLNESS, HEAT
EXHAUSTION CAN LEAD TO HEAT STROKE. HYDRATE WITH WATER, WEAR LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING, SEEK SHADE OR TAKE BREAKS INDOORS, NEVER LEAVE
PETS OR PEOPLE IN VEHICLES, CHECK IN ON YOUNG CHILDREN AND THE
ELDERLY. MORE SAFETY INFO CAN BE FOUND ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA AND
WEBSITE.
THIS WEEKEND, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
EASTWARD, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE TN VALLEY AND THE
REGION. SATURDAY/JULY 4TH, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE
IF ANOTHER HEAT PRODUCT NEEDS TO BE ISSUED AS HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH NEARLY EVERYONE FEELING A HEAT INDEX OF
100 AND SOME SPOTS REACHING A HEAT INDEX OF 105. DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH LOW CHANCES (20-40%) IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL CREATE A SFC LOW THAT WILL TOTE
A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR MEDIUM CHANCES ON SUNDAY
(40-60%), THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES ON MONDAY (50-70%) AND
TUESDAY (60-80%) AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THERE WILL BE VERY WEAK
TO NO WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CAPE, HIGH PWATS, AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE,
THERE WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN AND WIND RISK WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES, WE WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND IN
THE UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE LOWER
70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-00Z. SHOULD A TSRA IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL,
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP.24
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