117
FXUS64 KHUN 011728
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN
AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH 7 PM ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES UP TO 113F. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
ON THURSDAY THROUGH 7 PM ON FRIDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING HIGH END DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS. A VERY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT EXISTS AS WELL.
- LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A VERY HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME. A WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY WAS MORE EVIDENT EXTENDING SW FROM WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA WAS MORE EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONS
EARLIER SNAKING WEST INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA. BASED ON CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT, THINKING IT STILL IS IN A SIMILAR POSITION, BUT MAY
HAVE EDGED NORTHWEST A BIT. THIS IS HELPING FOCUS HIGHER DEWPOINTS
BETWEEN 75 AND 80 DEGREES OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S, BUT THIS MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY THE WEAK
BOUNDARY BEING RIGHT OVER THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER TOWARD 1 PM THROUGH 4 PM MIGHT HELP TO KEEP HIGHS FROM
REACHING THE 98 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE. DESPITE THAT, HEAT INDEX
VALUES (SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MOVE FURTHER WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON) WILL COULD CLIMB TO OVER 110 DEGREES BRIEFLY AT TIMES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, A EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE, THE DOWNBURST
THREAT FOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
ARE VERY CONCERNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE (THOUGH SCATTERED IN NATURE)
POSSIBLY A HIGHER IMPACT SEVERE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. EXPECT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THEN FURTHER WEST INTO
THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN TIMING FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM. THEN EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, VERY
ROBUST CAPE, HIGH LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIO VALUES, HIGH PWATS, STEEP
LAPSE RATES, AND A LARGE THETA E DIFFERENCE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 70 AT
LEAST WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY LOOKS IN GUIDANCE (THOUGH VERY WEAK AND HARD
TO DISCERN) TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER RIDGE DOESN'T MOVE MUCH AND REMAINS CENTERED OVER
WESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. LOWER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED (20-30%). THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 94 TO 99 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON, THE POSITION OF THE WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER OR NEAR THE AREA WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING OVER 110 DEGREE AT TIMES
IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS, EXTENDING EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AT 7 PM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO THE WEEK,
BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS
COULD IMPACT THAT, SO ONLY EXTENDING A EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR NOW
PAST THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
TO LOWER CHANCES (10-30 PERCENT). STRONG TO SEVERE MICORBURSTS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY
AT 7 PM. MORE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS COULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES TOO LOW AND NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
MORE PRONOUNCED RELIEF IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DECENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND MAYBE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING UPPER
LOW. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK WITH THESE SYSTEMS, BUT THEY SHOULD HELP
FOCUS STRONGER FORCING OVER THE AREA. WITH A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CONTINUING TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA, SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES. LOWS
WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH THOUGH, STAYING IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES MUCH LOWER, MAINLY BETWEEN 100 AND 106
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
GIVEN POSSIBLE CLOUD IMPACTS AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
LESS CERTAIN. THUS, ONLY EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
FRIDAY AT 7 PM FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF BOTH KMSL AND KHSV BEING AFFECTED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN AND NEAR TS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OTHERWISE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ076-
096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page