684
FXUS64 KHUN 021641
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1141 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1141 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF 110-114F. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TODAY THROUGH 7 PM ON SATURDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY (MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING). THESE WILL FEATURE A RISK FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, UP TO ONE INCH HAIL, AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
- THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL REMAIN IN THE
40-60% RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY'S STORM ACTIVITY HAS ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY
MORE REASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHEN MOST PEOPLE WOKE UP THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES STARTED OUT IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE
VERSUS THE MID 70S COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. SUNNY SKIES IN
PLACE CURRENTLY.
OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE SETUP TWO MAJOR
BOUNDARIES. ONE EXTENDS FROM BETWEEN NE AL AND THE BIRMINGHAM, AL
AREA NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MS. A SECOND ONE SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE
FROM JUST NORTH OF NASHVILLE, TN WEST INTO SE KENTUCKY. HIRESW-
ARW, WHICH HANDLED CONVECTION WELL YESTERDAY SEEMS TO INITIATE
MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION AROUND 1 PM NEAR THOSE BOUNDARIES.
THESE AREAS MAY SEE THE MORE CONCENTRATED AND CONSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OUTWARD FROM THESE BOUNDARIES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY.
MORNING BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING SHOWED A THETA E DIFFERENCE IN PLACE AROUND
30 DEGREES, SBCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 J/KG, AND 2-6 KM LAPSE
RATES OF 7.8 DEGREES/KM. INSTABILITY SHOULD ONLY INCREASE MORE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWATS AND DCAPE ARE A BIT LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT STILL MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR HIGHER END SEVERE
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED, CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AS WELL.
HOWEVER, THE DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGER THREAT WITH
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE OVERALL WINDOW FOR
SCATTERED OR HIGHER COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER, MAYBE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE WERE INCLUDED IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CONDITIONS, THOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF OUR ACTIVITY MAY BE LATER IN THE WATCH.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM.
MODELS DO SEEM TO MOVE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT
WARMER, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 72 TO 76 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
GUIDANCE SEEM TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY ORIENTING ITSELF OVER THE AREA
IN A WNW TO ENE FASHION ON FRIDAY. 925 MB TEMPERATURES STILL CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 25 AND 28 DEGREES IN THE LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION MAY INITIATE A BIT EARLIER ON FRIDAY
(BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM). HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS SEEMS TO MODIFY IN
THE LOW LEVELS A BIT BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING
LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK LIKE SOME MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD OCCUR, BUT THAT MAY BE BRIEF. DO EXPECT SOME
LOW LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE (PUSHING UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY)
COULD OCCUR, BUT DON'T THINK IT WILL BE AS HUMID AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 103 AND 109
DEGREES. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY MAY SOMEWHAT LOWER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES
LOOK MUCH LESS ROBUST ALONG WITH SBCAPE. THOUGH STILL EXPECTING
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. OVERALL,
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LESSENS AND SHIFTS MORE INTO
TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY. OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES AND
TOWARDS JACKSON COUNTY (AL) COULD SEE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT LINGER THOUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST, BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS ATTAINABLE. DRIER AIR ALOFT SEEMS TO LESSEN
AS WELL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWER 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO BETWEEN 24 AND 26 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP HIGHS MORE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
SHOWN IN GUIDANCE AND WITHOUT A MORE SOLID CONVERGENCE AREA TO
FOCUS HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON INSTABILITY VALUES SHOULD BE
LOWER. THAT BEING SAID, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH NO
SHEAR AND LOWER INSTABILITY/LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES, NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGHS SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST AND A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE MORE OF A
RULE WITH CONTINUED LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOK HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WELL
(40-60%).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-01Z. SHOULD A TSRA IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL,
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AND AWWS AND AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP
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