757
FXUS64 KHUN 030549
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY, DUE
TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109F.
- STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW (MAINLY FROM MID-DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS). THESE WILL FEATURE A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A HIGHER RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS).
- AFTER A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY,
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
TO 40-60% FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, A MID-LEVEL HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VA/NC. ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COLLAPSING STEERING CURRENTS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF 10-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN A FEW CLUSTERS OF OUTFLOW-
DRIVEN STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH HAVE BENEFITED FROM
EARLY EVENING CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG). PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 2-4Z, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN ABUNDANT COVERAGE OF HIGH- LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ENSURE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S, WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED WETTING
RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PREDICTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AL, WITH AN ADDITIONAL ZONE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PREDICTED TO OCCUR (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 12-15Z) FROM NORTHERN GA
INTO CENTRAL AL AS A SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE
(CURRENTLY ALONG THE GA/NORTH FL COAST) BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500-MB ANTICYCLONE. BOTH
REGIONS WILL LIKELY GENERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, AND THIS (COUPLED WITH OUTFLOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST) WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS,
WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG
RESULTING IN A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS (55-65
MPH), SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WITH INITIAL CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, WITH STEERING CURRENTS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, PWAT
VALUES OF 1.7-1.9" WILL YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN PREVIOUS DAYS. EVEN WITH A POTENTIALLY
EARLIER BEGINNING OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE L-M 90S, AND A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 105-109F
RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH (INITIALLY LOCATED ACROSS VA/NC)
WILL DRIFT FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES (AND GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY). THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL YIELD PROGRESSIVELY LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW BY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL MOISTEN THE MID-LEVELS AND PROVIDE WEAKER
LAPSE RATES/CAPE (AND A LOWER RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS)
AS WE PROGRESS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2-4Z (SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS), LEAVING ANOTHER MOIST BUT RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS IN
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING (FEATURING LOWS IN THE L-M 70S). THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT WEAK CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN, AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY MAY BE IMPACTED BY EARLY
DAY CLOUDS AND OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR AS IF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING
WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN IL. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE AN
IMPACT ON STORM COVERAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE, THEN AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CAPE WILL
TEND TO REDUCE THE RISK FOR HIGHER- CALIBER DOWNBURST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING, WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO ~2"
LEADING TO A GROWING CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN
IN THE L-M 90S THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH HEAT INDEX PREDICTED
TO ONLY REACH THE 100-104F RANGE ON SUNDAY, WE WILL NOT PLAN TO
EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST) WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH OUR
CWFA LIKELY TO BE LOCATED BENEATH THE NORTHWESTERN RIM OF THE
RIDGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS AN INITIALLY WEAK CUTOFF LOW ACROSS MO/AR
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT IN THIS REGIME (PWAT VALUES AROUND
2"), SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF DEEP-LAYER WARM ADVECTION. THUS, WE WILL
MAINTAIN MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, DECREASING TO 20-40% AT NIGHT. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (TO OUR NORTH) MAY LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE MAIN STORM IMPACTS AT THIS POINT
APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE U80S-L90S WITH LOWS IN THE L-M 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH A BKN-OVC COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
LGT NE WIND EXPECTED TO REDUCE CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BR/FG.
TSRA WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
INVOF SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES LOCATED IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR NORTH/EAST DURING THE AFTN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL CONGEAL ACROSS NORTHERN
AL TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING, WARRANTING PROB30 GROUPS FOR CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS BTWN 20-2Z. OVERCAST MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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