038
FXUS64 KHUN 031616
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1116 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY, DUE
TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109F.
- STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN TODAY (MAINLY FROM 2 PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS). THESE WILL FEATURE A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A HIGHER RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS).
- AFTER A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY,
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
TO 40-60% FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE DAYS INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES AT 1030 AM. DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALREADY THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS LIKELY NEAR A GENERALLY WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS WSW FROM NORTHEAST
GEORGIA.
BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS, NORTHERN ALABAMA IS MORE LIKELY (GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH) TO BE IN AN AIRMASS
MORE SIMILAR TO THE NASHVILLE, TN SOUNDING. THIS 7 AM SOUNDINGS
SHOW A BIT MORE MIXING OF DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE AFTER TEMPERATURES
REACH AND EXCEED 90 DEGREES ROUGHLY. THIS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES (93 TO 97 DEGREES - MAINLY DUE TO A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON) SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES A
BIT MORE IN CHECK TODAY. EXPECTING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
MORE EXTREME HEAT INDEX VALUES WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
MORE UNLIKELY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO DEVELOP ACTIVITY THIS FAR
NORTH CLOSER TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM AND THEN EXPAND COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TIME. EXPECT 30 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
BASED ON MORNING SOUNDING FROM BMX, THETA E DIFFERENCES OF AROUND
30 ARE STILL IN PLACE. 2-6 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5, SBCAPE OF
2500 TO 3300 J/KG, AND HIGH PWATS (1.74 INCHES) REMAIN IN PLACE AS
WELL. SO STRONG TO SEVERE MICROBURST POTENTIAL HASN'T DIMINISHED
VERY MUCH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL, BUT LARGER HAIL GIVEN
SLIGHTLY LESS SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS A BIT MORE OF A
STRETCH.
THESE STORMS COULD LAST UNTIL BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM, SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT, BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WAS
INCLUDED OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN HIGHER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN RATHER WARM ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 69 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE MAINLY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS OVER MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CONCENTRATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR NNW OVER SE MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AREA. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL AS A RESULT. GIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODELS THOUGH, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE HIGHER OF THOSE CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NW ALABAMA.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR ENE REALLY WEAKENS (CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS
FROM 594 MB TO 591 MB) ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOWER, MORE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. HOWEVER, WITH FOCUSING OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HEAT INDEX
IN REALITY MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB OVER 105 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MORE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHEAR CONTINUES TO
REMAIN WEAK IN GUIDANCE SO FAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES BECOME
MORE SATURATED THROUGHOUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SO, NOT LOOKING LIKE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE CARDS DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER,
STRONGER AND MORE CONSISTENT FORCING ALONG WITH A VERY SATURATED
PROFILE/GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
TAP INTO. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER (88-93) DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION. MORNING LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 20-40% AT NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (TO OUR NORTH) MAY LEAD
TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE
MAIN STORM IMPACTS AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT WILL
BE HARD TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN THE TERMINALS WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
HOWEVER, THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE A PROB30 20-02Z WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG, BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR
NOW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...JMS
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